NBA games

PHX @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
125–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX44222336125
MIN22312528106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 38 36 6 5
Devin Booker S 36 23 4 7
Grayson Allen S 33 20 6 1
Kevin Durant S 38 15 4 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 20 6 5 8
Josh Okogie 5 5 1 0
Thaddeus Young 9 5 1 0
Nassir Little 5 4 0 0
Bol Bol 8 4 2 0
Royce O'Neale 23 4 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rudy Gobert S 32 21 7 1
Mike Conley S 27 17 4 2
Anthony Edwards S 35 13 6 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 10 6 2
Naz Reid 20 10 4 1
Luka Garza 5 9 3 0
Jaden McDaniels S 28 6 0 1
Jordan McLaughlin 8 5 0 0
Kyle Anderson 18 4 1 4
Wendell Moore Jr. 5 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
5 Devin Booker PHX
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
7 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
47%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.8 3.7 6.7
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.8 6.1 4.2
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.6 4.7 5.5
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.3 7.7 3.9
5 Bradley Beal PHX 17.0 5.3 4.7
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.7 6.3 2.3
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.9 11.9 2.2
8 Mike Conley MIN 14.5 2.7 5.8
9 Grayson Allen PHX 11.9 4.2 2.4
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.6 3.7 1.8
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.4 2.6 2.0
12 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.8 10.0 4.3
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.6 4.6 1.9
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.5 2.9 3.6
15 Monte Morris MIN 5.3 2.5 1.2
16 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 5.3 1.7 2.3
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.4 4.7 0.9
18 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 1.5 0.6
19 Bol Bol PHX 3.4 2.5 0.6
20 Josh Okogie PHX 2.8 1.7 0.9
21 Saben Lee PHX 2.6 1.3 1.2
22 T.J. Warren MIN 2.6 1.6 0.7
23 Thaddeus Young PHX 2.4 3.0 0.7
24 Ish Wainright PHX 2.3 1.2 0.3
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.2 1.0 0.6
26 David Roddy PHX 1.9 1.1 0.4
27 Nassir Little PHX 1.9 0.8 0.4
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.9 1.0 0.7
29 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.8 0.8 0.6
30 Isaiah Thomas PHX 1.3 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.