NBA games

DEN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
126–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29372832126
MEM26282136111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MEM
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 24 21 6 4
Christian Braun 25 19 10 5
Nikola Jokic S 31 15 15 5
Aaron Gordon S 26 15 5 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 24 12 5 4
Reggie Jackson 24 11 0 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 25 11 4 3
Peyton Watson 21 11 2 1
Zeke Nnaji 17 6 4 0
Justin Holiday 19 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 44 44 12 1
Jake LaRavia S 40 29 5 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 25 15 3 7
Zavier Simpson 23 8 1 3
Jordan Goodwin S 37 8 8 3
Trey Jemison III S 38 6 11 3
Timmy Allen 24 1 1 1
Jack White 9 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
4 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
5 GG Jackson MEM
7%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
7 Brandon Clarke MEM
6%
8 Trey Jemison III MEM
6%
9 Ziaire Williams MEM
6%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
4%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.0 12.5 9.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.8 4.7 6.8
3 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.3 7.0 5.2
4 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 16.2 3.7 4.9
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.0 6.3 1.8
6 Jake LaRavia MEM 15.8 4.1 2.7
7 GG Jackson MEM 15.8 4.2 2.6
8 Jordan Goodwin MEM 12.6 9.4 4.7
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 12.3 2.8 4.3
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.7 3.0 2.6
11 Luke Kennard MEM 11.1 2.7 4.8
12 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.9 4.1 2.1
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 10.5 6.0 1.3
14 Santi Aldama MEM 10.4 5.8 1.8
15 Christian Braun DEN 10.1 4.0 2.3
16 Trey Jemison III MEM 9.6 6.9 1.5
17 Zavier Simpson MEM 7.0 3.0 3.4
18 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 5.8 1.5
19 Justin Holiday DEN 5.8 1.9 1.2
20 Timmy Allen MEM 5.6 3.7 1.1
21 Maozinha Pereira MEM 5.1 4.5 0.5
22 Jack White MEM 4.3 2.9 0.7
23 DeJon Jarreau MEM 4.3 3.6 2.1
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 2.4 0.7
25 Julian Strawther DEN 2.7 1.1 0.7
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.6 1.0 0.6
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.4 2.9 0.5
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.6 0.5 0.7
29 Braxton Key DEN 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.