NBA games

MIL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
88–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL3012291788
ORL22253333113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ORL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 32 17 3 5
Bobby Portis S 31 17 10 1
Damian Lillard S 30 16 4 2
Brook Lopez S 28 11 3 0
MarJon Beauchamp 7 7 1 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 7 6 0 2
Jae Crowder 22 6 2 0
Malik Beasley 20 4 2 0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 7 2 0 1
Patrick Beverley S 26 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 26 11 7
Franz Wagner S 33 25 5 3
Cole Anthony 17 13 5 4
Jonathan Isaac S 26 10 8 2
Moritz Wagner 13 10 1 1
Wendell Carter Jr. 14 7 2 0
Anthony Black 5 5 1 0
Caleb Houstan 5 5 0 0
Jalen Suggs S 28 4 2 4
Joe Ingles 17 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
15%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
5 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
6 Bobby Portis MIL
8%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
9 Patrick Beverley MIL
6%
10 Caleb Houstan ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
37%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 24.3 4.5 7.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.1 7.9 5.5
3 Franz Wagner ORL 18.0 4.7 2.9
4 Khris Middleton MIL 17.3 6.4 6.1
5 Bobby Portis MIL 15.2 8.0 2.1
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.0 3.2 3.3
7 Brook Lopez MIL 12.5 4.7 1.5
8 Malik Beasley MIL 10.5 2.7 1.5
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.1 6.7 1.9
10 Cole Anthony ORL 9.3 3.0 1.9
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.8 3.8 1.3
12 Markelle Fultz ORL 8.7 3.3 2.1
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 8.1 3.8 2.9
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.1 5.1 1.0
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.1 2.4 1.5
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.9 3.1 3.2
17 Jae Crowder MIL 5.9 2.8 1.2
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.9 2.0 2.9
19 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.8 1.4 0.6
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.7 1.5 0.8
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.5 1.6 0.5
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.2 1.1 0.5
23 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.1 2.1 0.6
24 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 2.7 1.3 0.8
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 1.9 0.6
26 Anthony Black ORL 2.5 1.3 0.6
27 Jett Howard ORL 2.4 1.1 0.5
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.1 0.6
29 Chris Livingston MIL 2.3 1.3 0.4
30 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.9 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.