NBA games

CHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
119–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHI2819352710119
NY2921263311120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home NY
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 44 30 5 5
Nikola Vucevic S 42 29 11 3
Coby White S 43 26 2 4
Alex Caruso S 41 15 5 8
Javonte Green S 38 11 8 1
Dalen Terry 24 6 7 1
Torrey Craig 17 2 5 1
Jevon Carter 16 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 41 40 8 7
Donte DiVincenzo S 53 25 7 2
Bojan Bogdanovic 17 13 2 1
Josh Hart S 40 12 10 4
OG Anunoby S 43 11 5 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 8 13 4
Miles McBride 14 7 2 3
Precious Achiuwa 19 4 5 2
Mitchell Robinson 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes two point shot (Alex Caruso assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
2 Jericho Sims NY
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
4 Coby White CHI
8%
5 OG Anunoby NY
7%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
7%
7 Josh Hart NY
6%
8 Dalen Terry CHI
6%
9 Jalen Brunson NY
5%
10 Javonte Green CHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
8%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 32.3 3.2 10.2
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 27.7 4.5 6.3
3 Coby White CHI 19.0 3.9 4.8
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.4 4.2 3.3
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.3 9.5 3.3
6 OG Anunoby NY 14.1 3.9 2.1
7 Josh Hart NY 13.9 8.9 6.0
8 Miles McBride NY 13.7 3.2 3.2
9 Javonte Green CHI 12.2 7.2 1.1
10 Alex Caruso CHI 11.9 3.9 5.1
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.1 7.3 4.0
12 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 8.8 2.0 1.1
13 Jevon Carter CHI 6.0 1.7 1.6
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.0 5.9 0.9
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.6 5.3 0.7
16 Alec Burks NY 5.2 2.0 1.0
17 Dalen Terry CHI 5.0 2.2 1.6
18 Torrey Craig CHI 5.0 3.0 0.9
19 Adama Sanogo CHI 4.1 3.5 0.5
20 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.4 1.6 0.4
21 Henri Drell CHI 3.3 1.4 0.9
22 Jacob Toppin NY 3.0 1.4 0.6
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.8 3.1 0.7
24 Shake Milton NY 2.8 1.7 0.8
25 Onuralp Bitim CHI 2.7 1.1 0.6
26 Andrew Funk CHI 2.6 1.1 0.5
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.3 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.