NBA games

TOR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
103–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR24222532103
MIA24432724118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIA
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 23 18 4 1
Jordan Nwora 21 14 11 1
Gradey Dick S 29 14 2 1
Kelly Olynyk S 22 11 8 2
Ochai Agbaji S 33 10 6 2
Garrett Temple 25 9 3 7
Javon Freeman-Liberty S 33 8 1 7
Jalen McDaniels 23 7 2 2
Bruce Brown 20 6 0 0
Malik Williams 11 6 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Thomas Bryant 23 18 10 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 18 4 5
Tyler Herro S 29 17 6 8
Bam Adebayo S 19 17 6 2
Jimmy Butler III S 24 15 5 4
Caleb Martin S 24 12 5 2
Delon Wright 28 11 3 4
Haywood Highsmith 24 5 3 1
Nikola Jovic S 16 3 3 1
Alondes Williams 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jovic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Nikola Jovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
16%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR
12%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Caleb Martin MIA
6%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 24.1 6.2 5.0
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.6 4.8 5.5
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.2 4.8 6.5
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.2 9.4 4.8
5 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 19.6 4.0 3.1
6 Kelly Olynyk TOR 17.2 6.9 6.1
7 Gradey Dick TOR 13.0 3.3 1.3
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.5 4.7 2.7
9 Bruce Brown TOR 11.1 3.6 3.4
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA 11.1 5.7 1.7
11 Caleb Martin MIA 10.3 3.3 3.4
12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.6 3.1 2.4
13 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 9.4 4.2 1.7
14 Kevin Love MIA 9.0 5.8 1.6
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.4 4.1 1.8
16 Jordan Nwora TOR 8.3 3.8 1.8
17 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.1 4.7 0.7
18 Delon Wright MIA 6.5 2.3 2.3
19 Garrett Temple TOR 5.9 3.0 1.4
20 Patty Mills MIA 5.9 1.3 1.9
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.0 1.8 1.1
22 Malik Williams TOR 3.6 5.0 0.5
23 Cole Swider MIA 3.5 1.3 0.8
24 Jamal Cain MIA 3.1 1.3 1.0
25 Alondes Williams MIA 3.1 1.4 0.7
26 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.8 1.8 0.8
27 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 2.6 2.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.