NBA games

ATL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
115–157
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34382122115
IND49373932157

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home IND
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 31 32 3 3
Mouhamed Gueye 27 19 9 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 27 18 4 1
Trae Young S 32 12 3 12
Bruno Fernando S 21 12 2 1
AJ Griffin 20 8 0 0
Garrison Mathews 21 6 0 0
De'Andre Hunter S 27 6 2 1
Kobe Bufkin 7 2 1 0
Vit Krejci 22 0 5 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 22 31 12 0
Pascal Siakam S 25 28 6 1
T.J. McConnell 15 17 4 8
Doug McDermott 18 15 1 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 25 12 2 13
Andrew Nembhard S 23 10 2 5
Jalen Smith 19 10 5 2
Aaron Nesmith S 20 8 3 1
Jarace Walker 10 8 5 1
Obi Toppin 12 7 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 3-foot layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
16%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL
11%
4 Myles Turner IND
10%
5 Trae Young ATL
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
40%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.7 5.8 8.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.0 7.8 3.1
3 Trae Young ATL 21.1 3.4 10.1
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 20.3 4.3 4.3
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.4 4.6 8.8
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 18.7 5.5 2.7
7 T.J. McConnell IND 16.2 3.3 6.2
8 Myles Turner IND 15.5 6.2 1.7
9 Clint Capela ATL 12.8 10.5 1.8
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.8 4.3 1.9
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.7 2.7 3.5
12 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 4.3 1.8
13 Bruno Fernando ATL 8.6 4.9 1.7
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.3 2.0 1.1
15 Vit Krejci ATL 8.2 3.0 1.9
16 Kobe Bufkin ATL 6.7 2.7 2.0
17 Jalen Smith IND 6.6 4.8 0.9
18 Ben Sheppard IND 5.7 1.9 1.4
19 Trent Forrest ATL 4.2 1.7 3.2
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.0 2.7 1.0
21 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.9 3.9 0.6
22 Doug McDermott IND 3.7 1.2 0.8
23 AJ Griffin ATL 3.0 1.6 0.6
24 Quenton Jackson IND 3.0 1.2 0.6
25 Jarace Walker IND 2.7 1.4 0.8
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.5 0.6 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.