NBA games

CHA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
120–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA24333132120
CLE33253814110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CLE
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nick Smith Jr. 33 24 6 3
JT Thor S 41 20 9 4
Bryce McGowens S 30 18 3 4
Marques Bolden S 30 14 8 2
Tre Mann S 24 11 4 6
Leaky Black 32 11 6 5
Amari Bailey 22 11 5 5
Aleksej Pokusevski 19 8 5 3
Vasilije Micic S 10 3 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Georges Niang 23 16 1 1
Jarrett Allen S 23 14 7 2
Max Strus S 31 14 10 11
Evan Mobley S 25 14 6 5
Isaac Okoro S 29 11 3 6
Isaiah Mobley 16 11 3 0
Emoni Bates 29 7 3 3
Marcus Morris Sr. 19 7 3 0
Tristan Thompson 12 6 3 0
Damian Jones 12 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marques Bolden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Marques Bolden makes 10-foot two point shot (Vasilije Micic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
25%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
3 Grant Williams CHA
14%
4 Max Strus CLE
12%
5 Marques Bolden CHA
11%
6 Vasilije Micic CHA
11%
7 Tre Mann CHA
11%
8 JT Thor CHA
0%
9 Bryce McGowens CHA
0%
10 Leaky Black CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
21%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.8 10.7 3.5
2 Evan Mobley CLE 18.0 7.3 3.9
3 Grant Williams CHA 16.4 5.3 5.0
4 Tre Mann CHA 13.2 3.6 5.8
5 Max Strus CLE 13.0 4.3 5.0
6 Vasilije Micic CHA 10.9 2.6 7.0
7 Nick Richards CHA 9.4 6.6 1.1
8 Davis Bertans CHA 9.3 2.4 1.2
9 Georges Niang CLE 9.2 2.8 1.4
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.7 2.7 1.4
11 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 8.4 4.6 1.3
12 Leaky Black CHA 4.7 2.7 1.3
13 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.5 1.7 0.9
14 Damian Jones CLE 4.3 2.4 0.7
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.0 1.4 0.7
16 JT Thor CHA 3.9 2.2 0.7
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.9 1.7 1.3
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.4 1.5 0.6
19 Emoni Bates CLE 3.3 1.0 0.8
20 Marques Bolden CHA 3.1 3.0 0.5
21 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.7 1.2 0.9
22 Amari Bailey CHA 2.4 1.2 0.5
23 Pete Nance CLE 2.3 1.1 0.6
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.1 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.