NBA games

WSH @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
122–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30293033122
BOS34353825132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home BOS
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Eugene Omoruyi 23 26 2 5
Jared Butler 31 22 2 7
Patrick Baldwin Jr. S 33 17 7 0
Jules Bernard 24 13 6 3
Anthony Gill S 17 12 5 3
Justin Champagnie 21 9 7 3
Deni Avdija S 31 9 3 2
Corey Kispert S 33 8 3 8
Johnny Davis S 27 6 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 44 38 9 12
Svi Mykhailiuk S 37 26 5 5
Neemias Queta 20 19 9 1
Sam Hauser S 35 16 5 2
Luke Kornet S 27 11 8 5
Xavier Tillman 6 9 1 0
Jaden Springer 20 7 2 0
Oshae Brissett 16 4 2 1
JD Davison 10 1 3 2
Jordan Walsh S 17 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Payton Pritchard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Payton Pritchard makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
14%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
3 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
4 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
5 Jaden Springer BOS
8%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
7%
8 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS
6%
10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
19%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 23.1 4.0 7.9
2 Deni Avdija WSH 21.4 9.2 4.8
3 Corey Kispert WSH 18.6 4.6 3.2
4 Derrick White BOS 16.7 4.4 6.0
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.2 3.5 5.3
6 Sam Hauser BOS 10.9 3.9 1.8
7 Anthony Gill WSH 9.5 4.3 1.4
8 Jared Butler WSH 9.2 3.2 4.8
9 Richaun Holmes WSH 8.0 7.2 0.9
10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.6 3.7 1.3
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.9 4.3 1.4
12 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 6.1 4.3 1.2
13 Luke Kornet BOS 6.1 4.7 1.1
14 Johnny Davis WSH 5.8 2.1 1.1
15 Neemias Queta BOS 5.7 4.3 1.1
16 Drew Peterson BOS 5.5 1.9 0.9
17 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 5.3 1.8 1.2
18 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 5.0 2.5 0.8
19 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.9 2.7 1.2
20 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.8 3.0 1.0
21 JD Davison BOS 4.0 1.6 1.8
22 Jules Bernard WSH 3.8 1.3 0.6
23 Jaden Springer BOS 3.8 2.4 1.0
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.3 2.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.