NBA games

PHX @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
108–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX22233330108
SAC27273122107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SAC
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 42 28 5 3
Devin Booker S 41 21 4 6
Bradley Beal S 34 20 9 4
Grayson Allen S 38 19 3 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 10 10 3
Royce O'Neale 24 6 3 2
Drew Eubanks 12 2 7 0
Eric Gordon 17 2 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 42 25 12 9
Keegan Murray S 43 23 7 0
De'Aaron Fox S 41 23 5 6
Keon Ellis S 33 17 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 41 12 6 3
Trey Lyles 15 3 2 1
Davion Mitchell 20 2 0 3
Alex Len 5 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:17 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
7 Drew Eubanks PHX
8%
8 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
28%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.2 3.9 7.2
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.9 5.4 6.1
3 Kevin Durant PHX 24.6 6.3 4.4
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.6 12.2 7.4
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.8 5.5 2.3
6 Bradley Beal PHX 16.5 4.6 5.2
7 Grayson Allen PHX 11.2 4.2 2.4
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.6 3.4 1.5
9 Davion Mitchell SAC 10.2 2.6 2.4
10 Keon Ellis SAC 9.6 4.0 1.9
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.6 10.2 4.3
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 3.7 1.4
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.3 4.6 1.7
14 Eric Gordon PHX 6.6 1.6 1.1
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.8 1.7 0.7
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.4 4.4 0.8
17 Bol Bol PHX 4.0 2.6 0.6
18 Chris Duarte SAC 3.5 1.6 0.7
19 Josh Okogie PHX 3.4 1.9 1.0
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.2 1.4 0.7
21 Saben Lee PHX 3.0 1.5 1.2
22 Alex Len SAC 3.0 3.1 1.1
23 Colby Jones SAC 2.9 1.9 0.8
24 Thaddeus Young PHX 2.8 3.2 0.8
25 Nassir Little PHX 2.4 1.0 0.5
26 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.4 1.3 0.5
27 David Roddy PHX 2.3 1.3 0.5
28 Isaiah Thomas PHX 1.8 0.6 0.5
29 Mason Jones SAC 1.6 0.7 0.8
30 JaVale McGee SAC 1.5 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.