NBA games

HOU @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
116–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU23313032116
POR24163532107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home POR
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 35 26 9 1
Jock Landale S 32 20 4 3
Aaron Holiday 26 18 2 2
Amen Thompson S 35 17 15 6
Cam Whitmore 25 11 5 4
Dillon Brooks S 31 9 5 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 8 5 4
Jeff Green 17 7 3 4
Reggie Bullock Jr. 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson S 34 30 5 7
Dalano Banton 38 28 10 3
Kris Murray S 43 10 7 2
Duop Reath 19 10 4 0
Jabari Walker S 14 9 5 0
Moses Brown 15 8 9 0
Deandre Ayton S 23 6 2 1
Rayan Rupert S 26 4 2 5
Justin Minaya 28 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Walker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jabari Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
16%
2 Scoot Henderson POR
13%
3 Kris Murray POR
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
6 Jalen Green HOU
11%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
8 Jabari Walker POR
9%
9 Rayan Rupert POR
7%
10 Dalano Banton POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
30%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scoot Henderson POR 23.6 4.1 9.5
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.2 5.8 5.7
3 Dalano Banton POR 22.8 5.6 5.1
4 Deandre Ayton POR 22.3 11.9 2.2
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.8 5.5 2.1
6 Amen Thompson HOU 13.0 9.0 3.5
7 Jabari Walker POR 11.8 9.6 1.5
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.6 3.2 1.8
9 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.5 3.8 1.3
10 Kris Murray POR 10.5 4.9 1.9
11 Shaedon Sharpe POR 10.0 3.8 1.6
12 Jock Landale HOU 9.1 4.2 1.7
13 Duop Reath POR 8.1 4.0 1.2
14 Rayan Rupert POR 8.0 3.8 2.8
15 Jeff Green HOU 6.9 2.7 1.2
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.6 2.6 1.6
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.5 1.7 1.6
18 Justin Minaya POR 4.1 2.7 0.9
19 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.3 1.9 0.6
20 Nate Hinton HOU 2.7 1.6 0.7
21 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.4 1.4 0.5
22 Moses Brown POR 2.4 2.0 0.4
23 Nate Williams HOU 2.3 1.2 0.5
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.0 1.8 0.3
25 Ibou Badji POR 1.3 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.