NBA games

NO @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO17452626114
GS26222734109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home GS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 38 28 5 5
Zion Williamson S 37 26 3 3
Trey Murphy III S 42 24 8 2
Herbert Jones S 38 13 5 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 16 10 5 1
Dyson Daniels 26 6 8 7
Jose Alvarado 35 4 3 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 7 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 33 4 5
Klay Thompson S 38 19 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 34 18 4 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 22 10 11 2
Moses Moody 19 9 3 1
Chris Paul 28 9 4 6
Kevon Looney 8 6 2 0
Brandin Podziemski 23 5 7 1
Draymond Green S 36 0 12 11

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
15%
2 Zion Williamson NO
13%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
7 CJ McCollum NO
7%
8 Herbert Jones NO
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Chris Paul GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
37%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 25.2 6.4 5.4
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.9 4.7 6.5
3 CJ McCollum NO 23.4 4.7 5.7
4 Klay Thompson GS 20.1 3.6 3.3
5 Trey Murphy III NO 17.2 6.4 2.9
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.4 5.5 1.9
7 Herbert Jones NO 10.5 3.1 3.1
8 Draymond Green GS 10.5 6.2 5.2
9 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.5 8.0 1.7
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.4 5.3 3.1
11 Chris Paul GS 10.3 3.5 5.7
12 Jonas Valanciunas NO 10.2 6.4 1.8
13 Dyson Daniels NO 8.9 4.1 2.4
14 Moses Moody GS 8.3 2.8 1.5
15 Jose Alvarado NO 7.5 2.7 2.3
16 Kevon Looney GS 4.4 4.8 0.8
17 Lester Quinones GS 3.5 1.4 0.7
18 Jalen Crutcher NO 3.4 1.0 1.2
19 Dario Saric GS 2.9 1.6 1.1
20 E.J. Liddell NO 2.7 1.4 0.6
21 Gui Santos GS 2.7 1.2 0.7
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.5 1.6 0.8
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.5 1.0 0.6
24 Matt Ryan NO 2.4 0.8 0.6
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.2 2.2 0.6
26 Usman Garuba GS 1.8 1.2 0.5
27 Pat Spencer GS 1.8 0.7 0.6
28 Jerome Robinson GS 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.