NBA games

DET @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
107–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET27262727107
DAL2125222189

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home DAL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Sasser S 32 24 3 3
Chimezie Metu S 35 18 8 2
Evan Fournier 29 13 4 2
Jared Rhoden 27 11 4 0
Malachi Flynn 16 10 0 5
James Wiseman S 37 10 10 2
Taj Gibson 12 8 5 2
Jaden Ivey S 28 7 1 5
Troy Brown Jr. S 26 6 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Hardy 29 25 7 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 29 16 6 1
P.J. Washington S 15 9 3 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 16 8 2 2
Daniel Gafford S 12 6 2 1
Maxi Kleber 11 6 3 2
Brandon Williams 18 4 1 0
Dwight Powell 21 4 10 4
Josh Green 23 4 3 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 14 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes dunk (Dante Exum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
7 Chimezie Metu DET
9%
8 Marcus Sasser DET
9%
9 Stanley Umude DET
8%
10 Troy Brown Jr. DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
41%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.9 5.6 7.2
2 Jaden Ivey DET 19.0 4.1 4.8
3 P.J. Washington DAL 15.1 6.9 2.3
4 Malachi Flynn DET 13.5 3.3 3.4
5 Jalen Duren DET 12.6 10.0 1.7
6 Chimezie Metu DET 11.9 6.7 2.4
7 Marcus Sasser DET 11.7 2.5 4.4
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.9 7.3 2.2
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 10.5 2.9 2.2
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.7 3.6 1.4
11 Dante Exum DAL 7.6 3.2 3.1
12 James Wiseman DET 7.3 6.3 1.1
13 Josh Green DAL 6.7 3.1 1.6
14 Troy Brown Jr. DET 6.6 3.7 1.3
15 Jaylen Nowell DET 6.4 1.9 1.4
16 Evan Fournier DET 6.2 2.2 1.4
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.8 3.4 1.4
18 Jared Rhoden DET 5.1 2.7 0.9
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.4 1.7 1.3
20 Buddy Boeheim DET 4.0 1.4 0.6
21 Stanley Umude DET 3.7 1.8 0.4
22 Alex Fudge DAL 3.0 1.8 0.6
23 Markieff Morris DAL 2.9 1.1 0.7
24 Brandon Williams DAL 2.9 1.1 1.0
25 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.8 1.4 0.6
26 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.7 1.4 0.7
27 Taj Gibson DET 2.3 1.6 0.4
28 Dwight Powell DAL 1.5 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.