NBA games

DEN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
120–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN31373220120
SA32183734121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 29 35 5 4
Nikola Jokic S 39 22 7 12
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 14 3 0
Aaron Gordon S 29 13 4 4
Christian Braun 23 11 3 3
Justin Holiday 15 8 1 2
Reggie Jackson 19 6 1 4
Peyton Watson 19 6 7 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 29 5 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 37 34 12 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 30 21 12 2
Zach Collins 21 15 6 3
Julian Champagnie S 37 14 5 2
Tre Jones S 39 14 6 10
Devonte' Graham 32 11 4 5
Sidy Cissoko 17 8 3 0
Blake Wesley S 19 2 1 4
David Duke Jr. 8 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA
8%
8 Zach Collins SA
8%
9 Tre Jones SA
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
49%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.3 13.3 10.4
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.4 11.9 6.1
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.8 4.7 7.1
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.0 7.5 5.1
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.4 6.8 2.0
6 Reggie Jackson DEN 14.1 2.9 4.8
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.9 3.3 2.6
8 Tre Jones SA 11.7 4.7 5.9
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.6 4.0 1.9
10 Zach Collins SA 10.9 5.0 2.7
11 Christian Braun DEN 10.2 4.5 2.5
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.9 6.0 1.6
13 Peyton Watson DEN 6.3 5.3 1.5
14 Blake Wesley SA 6.2 2.0 3.2
15 Devonte' Graham SA 5.9 1.6 2.1
16 Justin Holiday DEN 5.3 2.0 1.0
17 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.0 1.1 1.3
18 David Duke Jr. SA 3.7 1.8 1.2
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 2.7 0.6
20 Julian Strawther DEN 3.4 1.5 0.8
21 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.4 1.7 0.6
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 1.3 0.6
23 Jamaree Bouyea SA 2.9 1.5 1.1
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.7 3.2 0.5
25 Braxton Key DEN 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.