NBA games

MIL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL34183124107
OKC41282630125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home OKC
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 23 18 7 6
Brook Lopez S 23 18 2 1
Malik Beasley S 30 17 2 2
Danilo Gallinari 19 11 4 0
Pat Connaughton 16 8 1 2
MarJon Beauchamp 8 7 2 1
Patrick Beverley S 24 6 3 7
Chris Livingston 14 6 5 0
Bobby Portis S 21 4 8 3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 7 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 23 7 3
Chet Holmgren S 25 22 9 3
Aaron Wiggins 24 19 3 3
Jalen Williams S 27 17 2 5
Luguentz Dort S 27 11 1 3
Jaylin Williams 16 10 2 2
Cason Wallace 19 6 1 2
Lindy Waters III 6 6 1 2
Gordon Hayward S 26 6 6 2
Kenrich Williams 14 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bobby Portis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Bobby Portis makes 8-foot two point shot (Patrick Beverley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
2 Khris Middleton MIL
12%
3 Bobby Portis MIL
12%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
9 Patrick Beverley MIL
8%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.5 6.2 5.5
2 Jalen Williams OKC 20.9 5.2 5.1
3 Khris Middleton MIL 18.2 6.2 6.4
4 Bobby Portis MIL 17.9 8.1 2.3
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.6 7.4 1.7
6 Brook Lopez MIL 12.6 5.0 1.6
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.5 3.6 1.7
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.3 3.3 2.0
9 Malik Beasley MIL 9.9 2.8 1.4
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.3 3.0 2.0
11 Patrick Beverley MIL 8.1 3.9 2.4
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.3 3.1 3.3
13 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 2.7 1.8
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.5 2.9 1.3
15 Jae Crowder MIL 6.2 2.6 1.2
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.9 4.0 3.1
17 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.8 1.8 1.1
18 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.8 1.8 0.8
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.0 1.1 0.7
20 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.0 1.8 0.5
21 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 2.8 1.2 0.7
22 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.6 1.8 0.6
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.3 1.9 0.7
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.1 0.6
25 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.2 0.9 0.3
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.2 1.3 0.5
27 Mike Muscala OKC 2.2 1.4 0.5
28 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.1 0.8 0.4
29 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.1 0.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.