NBA games

ATL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
106–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL27203326106
MIN25312429109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIN
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 27 19 2 7
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 29 17 2 2
De'Andre Hunter S 25 15 2 1
Bruno Fernando 22 14 5 2
Clint Capela S 26 13 11 3
Dejounte Murray S 31 12 5 4
Kobe Bufkin 10 6 3 0
Vit Krejci 8 5 0 2
AJ Griffin 18 3 4 1
Mouhamed Gueye 21 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rudy Gobert S 37 25 19 0
Naz Reid 28 19 3 2
Anthony Edwards S 27 14 4 4
Mike Conley S 31 13 6 10
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 12 1 1
Jaden McDaniels S 30 11 3 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 11 5 8
Jordan McLaughlin 15 4 1 2
Monte Morris 6 0 2 0
Kyle Anderson 16 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL
8%
6 Clint Capela ATL
8%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
8 Trae Young ATL
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Naz Reid MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
22%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.0 4.9 5.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.3 7.7 3.7
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.1 5.9 9.1
4 Trae Young ATL 21.0 3.1 9.8
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 20.1 4.2 4.3
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.6 5.4 2.9
7 Naz Reid MIN 16.3 7.0 2.2
8 Mike Conley MIN 15.6 2.6 6.0
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.4 12.3 2.5
10 Clint Capela ATL 12.0 10.3 1.8
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.9 2.4 2.2
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.8 3.8 1.8
13 Vit Krejci ATL 8.9 3.3 1.8
14 Bruno Fernando ATL 7.9 4.4 1.7
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.8 1.9 1.0
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.3 3.2 4.0
17 Kobe Bufkin ATL 6.0 2.5 2.3
18 Monte Morris MIN 5.8 2.5 1.4
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 5.5 1.6 2.3
20 Luka Garza MIN 5.1 1.8 0.6
21 Trent Forrest ATL 4.0 1.8 3.2
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.6 2.3 0.9
23 T.J. Warren MIN 3.1 1.9 0.8
24 Josh Minott MIN 2.9 1.3 0.7
25 AJ Griffin ATL 2.5 1.2 0.5
26 Leonard Miller MIN 2.5 1.3 0.8
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.4 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.