NBA games

LAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
123–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL34343025123
MEM26383323120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MEM
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 41 37 9 5
Anthony Davis S 43 36 14 5
Rui Hachimura S 29 14 5 1
Austin Reaves S 25 13 0 1
Taurean Prince 24 9 4 1
Gabe Vincent 19 5 1 1
D'Angelo Russell S 35 4 3 10
Spencer Dinwiddie 20 3 1 1
Jaxson Hayes 5 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 40 31 1 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 30 28 5 6
Jake LaRavia S 43 28 3 6
Jordan Goodwin S 38 23 17 3
Trey Jemison III S 35 6 5 0
Timmy Allen 27 2 6 1
Zavier Simpson 12 2 1 2
Jack White 14 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes alley oop layup (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
9%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
3 GG Jackson MEM
8%
4 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
6 Trey Jemison III MEM
7%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
8 Brandon Clarke MEM
6%
9 Jordan Goodwin MEM
6%
10 LeBron James LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
38%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.9 7.3 9.3
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.6 13.2 3.4
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.2 4.1 6.3
4 Austin Reaves LAL 18.2 5.9 6.4
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.4 6.8 1.9
6 Jake LaRavia MEM 15.5 4.4 2.7
7 GG Jackson MEM 15.4 4.8 2.8
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 15.3 3.6 4.7
9 Luke Kennard MEM 12.0 2.8 5.0
10 Jordan Goodwin MEM 11.5 7.6 4.7
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 11.4 4.2 2.2
12 Santi Aldama MEM 11.3 6.0 1.9
13 Trey Jemison III MEM 11.1 7.0 1.6
14 Brandon Clarke MEM 11.1 6.1 1.5
15 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 10.6 3.2 2.2
16 Taurean Prince LAL 8.4 3.1 1.4
17 Zavier Simpson MEM 7.2 3.2 3.9
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.6 5.0 1.2
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.1 1.6 1.9
20 Timmy Allen MEM 5.6 3.5 1.2
21 Jack White MEM 4.6 2.8 0.8
22 Cam Reddish LAL 3.4 1.5 0.6
23 Max Christie LAL 3.4 1.4 0.8
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.3 1.0 0.6
25 Colin Castleton LAL 2.3 1.0 0.5
26 Skylar Mays LAL 2.3 1.0 0.5
27 Harry Giles III LAL 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.