NBA games

TOR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
103–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22282528103
MIA33332633125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIA
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 33 35 11 3
Immanuel Quickley S 30 15 4 5
Bruce Brown 22 14 4 4
Kelly Olynyk S 25 8 11 6
Gradey Dick S 31 8 1 0
Ochai Agbaji 25 7 1 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 29 7 1 1
Garrett Temple 8 5 2 0
Javon Freeman-Liberty 15 4 1 2
Malik Williams 19 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jovic S 27 22 5 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 20 4 9
Bam Adebayo S 25 19 6 3
Tyler Herro S 29 17 3 5
Kevin Love 18 14 8 2
Jimmy Butler III S 29 14 3 7
Haywood Highsmith 26 9 1 1
Delon Wright 19 7 2 5
Caleb Martin S 30 3 4 3
Orlando Robinson 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
3 Kelly Olynyk TOR
9%
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
9%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
25%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 24.3 5.8 5.1
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 23.2 5.5 8.5
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.7 4.8 5.5
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 21.2 4.0 3.0
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.5 4.9 6.4
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.1 10.8 4.9
7 Kelly Olynyk TOR 17.1 6.2 6.1
8 Gradey Dick TOR 14.6 3.5 1.3
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA 11.8 6.0 1.8
10 Bruce Brown TOR 11.0 3.2 3.4
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.0 4.2 2.7
12 Caleb Martin MIA 10.4 3.1 3.2
13 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 9.8 4.5 1.9
14 Jordan Nwora TOR 9.3 4.0 2.2
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.6 4.5 1.7
16 Kevin Love MIA 8.0 5.5 1.5
17 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.5 2.8 2.1
18 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.1 4.6 0.7
19 Patty Mills MIA 6.6 1.5 2.1
20 Delon Wright MIA 5.8 1.9 2.0
21 Garrett Temple TOR 5.6 2.8 1.5
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.4 2.0 1.1
23 Malik Williams TOR 3.7 5.2 0.5
24 Cole Swider MIA 3.2 1.2 0.7
25 Jamal Cain MIA 3.0 1.3 1.0
26 Alondes Williams MIA 2.9 1.3 0.7
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.7 1.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.