NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
120–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND26333526120
CLE35352732129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 32 19 6 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 19 6 12
Myles Turner S 28 17 6 5
T.J. McConnell 20 16 2 7
Aaron Nesmith S 33 15 6 0
Jalen Smith 20 11 6 0
Andrew Nembhard S 35 10 2 5
Obi Toppin 16 10 2 6
Ben Sheppard 14 3 3 1
Doug McDermott 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 38 33 4 5
Jarrett Allen S 38 29 13 3
Caris LeVert 27 16 6 5
Darius Garland S 29 16 2 4
Evan Mobley S 29 12 5 2
Georges Niang 27 9 5 0
Max Strus S 28 7 5 9
Isaac Okoro 25 7 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Myles Turner makes two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Darius Garland CLE
11%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
7 Max Strus CLE
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 8.8 3.6
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.5 4.3 8.6
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.0 4.4 5.6
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.7 9.5 3.3
5 Darius Garland CLE 18.2 3.9 7.6
6 Evan Mobley CLE 17.9 7.2 3.6
7 Caris LeVert CLE 15.8 5.0 4.1
8 T.J. McConnell IND 15.4 3.2 5.8
9 Myles Turner IND 14.4 6.0 1.5
10 Max Strus CLE 13.6 4.3 4.1
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.6 3.9 1.8
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.0 2.8 3.4
13 Obi Toppin IND 10.0 4.1 1.4
14 Georges Niang CLE 9.0 2.7 1.5
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.8 2.6 1.5
16 Jalen Smith IND 6.0 4.7 0.9
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.3 1.6 1.4
18 Damian Jones CLE 4.8 2.5 0.7
19 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.4 1.7 0.9
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.3 1.8 1.3
21 Doug McDermott IND 3.8 1.1 0.8
22 Emoni Bates CLE 3.6 1.3 0.8
23 Quenton Jackson IND 3.3 1.3 0.8
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 3.2 1.8 0.5
25 Jarace Walker IND 3.1 1.5 1.0
26 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.0 1.4 0.8
27 Pete Nance CLE 2.6 1.3 0.6
28 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.1 2.2 0.6
29 Kendall Brown IND 1.9 0.7 0.5
30 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.