NBA games

CHA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
98–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2419332298
BOS30392537131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home BOS
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Mann S 31 19 3 8
Nick Smith Jr. 29 15 3 2
Brandon Miller S 14 9 2 0
Davis Bertans 22 9 0 1
Aleksej Pokusevski 18 8 5 1
Bryce McGowens 20 8 2 1
Marques Bolden S 30 6 5 2
JT Thor 18 6 4 0
Amari Bailey 12 5 2 0
Vasilije Micic S 16 5 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 31 31 3 11
Sam Hauser S 30 16 4 2
Luke Kornet S 25 16 10 3
Neemias Queta 18 16 6 5
Jaden Springer S 25 11 6 4
Svi Mykhailiuk S 34 8 3 0
Oshae Brissett 15 8 11 1
Drew Peterson 12 8 0 0
Jordan Walsh 20 8 3 0
JD Davison 17 7 4 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Vasilije Micic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Vasilije Micic makes 26-foot three pointer (Marques Bolden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
24%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
21%
3 Derrick White BOS
19%
4 Tre Mann CHA
17%
5 Vasilije Micic CHA
17%
6 Davis Bertans CHA
0%
7 Marques Bolden CHA
0%
8 Leaky Black CHA
0%
9 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA
0%
10 JT Thor CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
25%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 21.5 6.4 3.6
2 Brandon Miller CHA 21.2 4.9 3.2
3 Derrick White BOS 16.3 4.3 6.0
4 Tre Mann CHA 12.7 4.0 5.2
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.6 3.3 4.9
6 Sam Hauser BOS 11.1 3.9 1.7
7 Vasilije Micic CHA 10.8 3.0 7.6
8 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 8.2 4.6 1.4
9 Davis Bertans CHA 8.1 2.4 1.2
10 Luke Kornet BOS 5.1 4.0 1.2
11 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.6 1.5 1.2
12 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.5 2.6 1.3
13 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.3 2.3 1.0
14 Leaky Black CHA 3.9 2.3 1.2
15 JT Thor CHA 3.4 2.0 0.6
16 Neemias Queta BOS 3.4 3.0 0.6
17 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.2 1.4 0.6
18 Jaden Springer BOS 3.2 1.9 0.7
19 Marques Bolden CHA 2.8 2.8 0.5
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 2.8 1.1 0.7
21 JD Davison BOS 2.1 0.8 1.0
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.9 2.1 0.5
23 Amari Bailey CHA 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.