NBA games

CHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
129–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33323331129
WSH40223332127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home WSH
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Javonte Green S 26 24 7 0
Adama Sanogo 35 22 20 0
Coby White S 27 20 4 4
Jevon Carter 37 20 2 12
Dalen Terry S 27 17 4 8
Torrey Craig S 34 11 15 3
Henri Drell 23 9 2 1
Onuralp Bitim S 25 6 2 0
Andrew Funk 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 24 12 8
Corey Kispert S 40 23 7 6
Tristan Vukcevic S 22 19 1 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. S 41 18 12 4
Johnny Davis S 25 15 2 2
Jared Butler 29 15 1 10
Eugene Omoruyi 12 7 0 0
Anthony Gill 17 4 0 1
Justin Champagnie 17 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tristan Vukcevic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
15%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
4 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
5 Coby White CHI
8%
6 Richaun Holmes WSH
7%
7 Anthony Gill WSH
6%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
6%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
6%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
8%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 29.3 4.5 6.5
2 Jordan Poole WSH 23.7 3.9 8.6
3 Deni Avdija WSH 20.7 8.8 5.1
4 Corey Kispert WSH 18.2 3.9 2.9
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.0 10.0 3.5
6 Coby White CHI 17.8 4.0 5.3
7 Alex Caruso CHI 12.7 4.1 5.2
8 Javonte Green CHI 11.7 7.5 1.0
9 Anthony Gill WSH 10.4 4.7 1.6
10 Tyus Jones WSH 9.6 2.6 9.0
11 Jared Butler WSH 8.6 3.1 4.3
12 Richaun Holmes WSH 8.3 7.0 1.0
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.9 3.4 1.2
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.8 3.2 1.1
15 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 5.4 3.4 1.0
16 Torrey Craig CHI 5.2 2.2 1.0
17 Johnny Davis WSH 5.1 2.1 1.2
18 Jevon Carter CHI 5.0 1.7 1.0
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 2.4 1.1
20 Adama Sanogo CHI 4.5 2.7 0.6
21 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.3 2.2 0.9
22 Onuralp Bitim CHI 3.3 1.4 0.7
23 Andrew Funk CHI 3.3 1.4 0.6
24 Henri Drell CHI 2.8 1.4 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.