NBA games

ORL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
113–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL27342230113
PHI40282829125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHI
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 35 24 6 3
Paolo Banchero S 41 22 15 7
Jalen Suggs S 33 20 4 2
Moritz Wagner 18 17 6 2
Cole Anthony 11 7 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 27 5 9 1
Goga Bitadze 14 5 2 0
Markelle Fultz 11 4 2 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 4 4 0 0
Gary Harris S 32 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 32 32 13 7
Tyrese Maxey S 40 28 2 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 30 21 9 2
Tobias Harris S 38 14 6 3
Kyle Lowry S 24 7 3 2
Paul Reed 15 6 3 1
Buddy Hield 14 6 3 0
Nicolas Batum 30 5 4 1
Cameron Payne 7 3 0 1
De'Anthony Melton 5 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
16%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
8%
6 Tobias Harris PHI
7%
7 Markelle Fultz ORL
6%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
6%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
5%
10 Kyle Lowry PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
91%
Jumper
6%
Layup
1%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.9 8.7 5.2
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.3 3.8 6.4
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.1 7.1 5.5
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.4 6.0 3.1
5 Franz Wagner ORL 17.4 4.1 2.8
6 Tobias Harris PHI 16.3 7.0 2.6
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.4 3.0 3.5
8 Cole Anthony ORL 10.7 3.3 2.6
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.5 7.3 1.9
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI 9.4 3.2 1.9
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 9.3 2.3 3.4
12 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.2 3.2 2.4
13 Buddy Hield PHI 9.2 3.1 1.6
14 Paul Reed PHI 8.5 6.3 1.5
15 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 3.6 1.4
16 Cameron Payne PHI 8.0 2.7 3.1
17 Gary Harris ORL 7.1 2.3 1.5
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.1 4.4 0.9
19 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.9 4.0 1.9
20 Mo Bamba PHI 6.4 5.8 1.1
21 Joe Ingles ORL 5.9 2.1 2.7
22 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.2 1.6 2.2
23 KJ Martin PHI 4.7 3.1 1.0
24 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.0 1.0 0.9
25 Terquavion Smith PHI 3.8 0.8 0.7
26 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.6 1.3 0.6
27 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.1 2.1 0.6
28 Anthony Black ORL 2.9 1.5 0.6
29 Jett Howard ORL 2.9 1.2 0.6
30 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.3 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.