NBA games

NO @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
135–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO34303437135
SAC23353134123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 40 31 4 7
Zion Williamson S 31 31 4 6
Trey Murphy III S 45 27 5 4
Jose Alvarado 22 14 6 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 33 13 10 3
Dyson Daniels 25 10 4 1
Herbert Jones S 29 5 5 6
Cody Zeller 9 2 1 2
Naji Marshall 4 2 1 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 41 33 5 8
Harrison Barnes S 33 22 5 4
Keegan Murray S 36 19 5 1
Domantas Sabonis S 35 18 10 4
Davion Mitchell 27 13 2 5
Trey Lyles 15 6 1 2
Sasha Vezenkov 11 5 2 0
Keon Ellis S 23 5 1 0
Alex Len 11 2 1 1
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
17%
2 Zion Williamson NO
14%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
5 CJ McCollum NO
8%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
42%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
9%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 25.0 6.8 4.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.2 5.7 5.6
3 CJ McCollum NO 22.7 4.7 5.7
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.5 12.3 8.1
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.8 5.5 2.3
6 Trey Murphy III NO 15.4 6.9 2.7
7 Keon Ellis SAC 10.7 4.2 2.7
8 Herbert Jones NO 10.4 3.1 2.5
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.0 3.2 1.4
10 Davion Mitchell SAC 8.9 2.6 2.1
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 8.8 6.5 1.6
12 Dyson Daniels NO 7.8 4.2 2.7
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.7 4.2 1.5
14 Jose Alvarado NO 6.5 2.5 1.7
15 Naji Marshall NO 5.4 3.0 1.3
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.3 1.3 0.6
17 Chris Duarte SAC 3.1 1.4 0.5
18 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.9 1.2 0.6
19 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.9 0.9 0.5
20 Alex Len SAC 2.9 3.2 1.1
21 Matt Ryan NO 2.8 1.1 0.6
22 E.J. Liddell NO 2.8 1.4 0.6
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.7 1.7 0.8
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.7 1.8 0.8
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.1 2.2 0.5
26 Mason Jones SAC 1.6 0.8 0.8
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.