NBA games

GS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
100–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS24252625100
POR2224281892

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home POR
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 22 7 8
Jonathan Kuminga S 34 19 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 30 15 5 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 27 10 8 4
Brandin Podziemski 33 9 3 4
Kevon Looney 21 9 11 0
Chris Paul S 32 8 3 4
Moses Moody 21 8 2 1
Dario Saric 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 34 25 11 1
Scoot Henderson S 40 18 3 12
Jabari Walker S 36 17 16 1
Kris Murray S 45 14 4 2
Duop Reath 14 8 5 0
Ashton Hagans 14 5 2 4
Justin Minaya 29 3 4 2
Rayan Rupert S 29 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scoot Henderson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
15%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
15%
3 Stephen Curry GS
13%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
12%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
6 Kris Murray POR
10%
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
8 Jabari Walker POR
8%
9 Rayan Rupert POR
6%
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
21%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.9 4.9 6.5
2 Deandre Ayton POR 21.9 11.2 2.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.1 3.3 6.2
4 Scoot Henderson POR 19.8 3.6 10.0
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 19.2 5.3 3.2
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 16.1 5.9 2.0
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.7 8.4 1.6
8 Jabari Walker POR 10.6 9.0 1.6
9 Kris Murray POR 10.3 5.0 2.0
10 Chris Paul GS 10.2 3.5 6.0
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.1 5.3 2.6
12 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.7 3.6 1.6
13 Duop Reath POR 8.5 3.6 1.4
14 Moses Moody GS 8.1 2.7 1.4
15 Rayan Rupert POR 7.8 3.5 2.7
16 Ashton Hagans POR 5.5 2.5 3.2
17 Lester Quinones GS 4.1 1.6 0.7
18 Justin Minaya POR 3.7 2.1 0.8
19 Kevon Looney GS 3.4 3.5 0.6
20 Gui Santos GS 3.3 1.5 0.7
21 Usman Garuba GS 2.4 1.5 0.5
22 Pat Spencer GS 2.4 1.0 0.6
23 Moses Brown POR 2.1 1.7 0.4
24 Jerome Robinson GS 1.9 0.8 0.4
25 Dario Saric GS 1.8 1.1 1.0
26 Ibou Badji POR 1.1 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.