NBA games

HOU @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
121–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU38292925121
UTAH28363426124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home UTAH
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 40 42 7 7
Cam Whitmore 27 18 4 4
Amen Thompson S 35 15 10 4
Jeff Green 22 13 6 0
Jock Landale 27 9 1 2
Dillon Brooks S 27 8 4 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 26 7 3 2
Aaron Holiday 11 6 2 1
Jalen Green S 19 3 1 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Samanic S 34 22 6 2
Keyonte George S 33 20 4 5
Brice Sensabaugh 24 17 6 3
Talen Horton-Tucker 29 16 5 5
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 27 14 9 5
Omer Yurtseven S 19 10 5 0
Johnny Juzang S 24 10 2 1
Darius Bazley 23 8 7 2
Taylor Hendricks S 19 5 4 4
Micah Potter 8 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Fred VanVleet · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
15%
2 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
11%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Luka Samanic UTAH
9%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
8%
10 Johnny Juzang UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
25%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 26.6 5.9 6.5
2 Fred VanVleet HOU 21.8 4.1 7.2
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.4 6.0 2.3
4 Keyonte George UTAH 15.1 3.1 5.0
5 Amen Thompson HOU 13.2 9.0 3.7
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.2 3.4 2.2
7 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.1 4.3 1.2
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.6 4.1 2.9
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.8 4.5 1.3
10 Jock Landale HOU 9.1 4.5 1.9
11 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.5 2.5 1.5
12 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 8.1 5.0 1.0
13 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 8.1 2.1 1.8
14 Jeff Green HOU 7.9 3.0 1.4
15 Darius Bazley UTAH 5.5 3.6 1.3
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.1 1.6 1.5
17 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.8 3.3 0.8
18 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.8 2.5 0.7
19 Nate Hinton HOU 3.4 2.1 0.9
20 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 3.0 2.1 0.6
21 Jason Preston UTAH 3.0 2.0 1.9
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.9 2.2 0.4
23 Nate Williams HOU 2.9 1.9 0.6
24 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 2.8 0.9 1.1
25 Kenneth Lofton Jr. UTAH 2.7 0.9 0.5
26 Micah Potter UTAH 2.6 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.