NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY32373118118
BOS29192338109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 30 39 2 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 41 17 4 4
Josh Hart S 32 16 16 5
Bojan Bogdanovic 25 14 3 0
OG Anunoby S 26 12 5 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 11 13 6
Mitchell Robinson 15 5 4 0
Precious Achiuwa 16 2 5 0
Miles McBride 22 2 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 32 18 4 7
Payton Pritchard 21 16 4 6
Sam Hauser 22 15 4 3
Jaylen Brown S 29 15 2 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 25 14 8 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 13 9 2 2
Jrue Holiday S 29 7 5 1
Al Horford 16 6 2 1
Jaden Springer 13 3 1 0
Xavier Tillman 6 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes alley oop layup (Kristaps Porzingis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donte DiVincenzo NY
20%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
5 OG Anunoby NY
8%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
7 Jalen Brunson NY
7%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
9 Al Horford BOS
6%
10 Xavier Tillman BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
66%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
18%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.4 3.3 8.9
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.3 6.9 5.4
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.4 5.6 3.6
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 19.9 4.5 3.5
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.3 7.6 2.7
6 Derrick White BOS 18.1 4.7 6.3
7 Miles McBride NY 14.9 3.6 2.9
8 OG Anunoby NY 13.7 4.6 1.9
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.4 3.0 5.0
10 Al Horford BOS 12.2 5.3 2.2
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 12.0 7.1 3.5
12 Josh Hart NY 11.7 9.5 6.2
13 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.2 4.4 5.0
14 Sam Hauser BOS 10.4 3.7 1.5
15 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 8.4 1.9 1.0
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.0 5.8 0.8
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.9 5.0 1.1
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.5 3.4 1.0
19 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.3 2.6 1.2
20 Alec Burks NY 3.9 1.6 0.6
21 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.8 1.2 1.1
22 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.4 1.7 0.3
23 Jacob Toppin NY 2.9 1.5 0.5
24 Shake Milton NY 2.8 1.8 0.7
25 Jericho Sims NY 1.7 3.0 0.3
26 Jaden Springer BOS 1.6 1.1 0.4
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.2 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.