NBA games

CHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
127–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI31333528127
DET30252525105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DET
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 36 39 4 7
Nikola Vucevic S 37 27 11 4
Coby White S 37 18 3 5
Dalen Terry 17 12 2 0
Javonte Green S 30 11 8 0
Alex Caruso S 34 8 4 10
Jevon Carter 21 5 1 1
Adama Sanogo 11 4 6 0
Torrey Craig 10 3 2 1
Henri Drell 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Sasser S 33 20 0 5
Jalen Duren S 31 20 11 3
Jaden Ivey S 31 16 2 6
Chimezie Metu S 32 15 8 3
Malachi Flynn 15 12 2 1
Jared Rhoden 18 8 4 1
Evan Fournier 26 5 1 3
Troy Brown Jr. S 36 4 4 3
Buddy Boeheim 2 3 0 0
James Wiseman 17 2 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 5-foot two point shot (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
5 Coby White CHI
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
9%
7 Marcus Sasser DET
7%
8 Chimezie Metu DET
7%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
6%
10 Javonte Green CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 27.6 4.6 6.3
2 Cade Cunningham DET 24.2 5.5 7.4
3 Jaden Ivey DET 19.1 4.1 4.6
4 Coby White CHI 17.6 3.9 5.0
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.2 9.8 3.7
6 Jalen Duren DET 12.4 10.0 1.6
7 Malachi Flynn DET 12.3 3.2 3.5
8 Alex Caruso CHI 11.6 4.1 4.7
9 Marcus Sasser DET 11.0 2.7 4.7
10 Chimezie Metu DET 10.9 5.9 2.3
11 Javonte Green CHI 10.7 7.3 1.1
12 James Wiseman DET 10.3 6.5 1.4
13 Jaylen Nowell DET 7.2 2.0 1.5
14 Troy Brown Jr. DET 6.7 3.6 1.4
15 Evan Fournier DET 6.5 2.1 1.5
16 Torrey Craig CHI 5.5 2.4 1.0
17 Jevon Carter CHI 5.1 1.5 1.1
18 Jared Rhoden DET 5.0 2.0 1.0
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.4 2.8 1.4
20 Stanley Umude DET 4.2 1.8 0.5
21 Buddy Boeheim DET 3.9 1.3 0.8
22 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.3 2.4 0.6
23 Onuralp Bitim CHI 2.6 1.2 0.5
24 Taj Gibson DET 2.6 1.6 0.5
25 Andrew Funk CHI 2.5 0.9 0.4
26 Henri Drell CHI 1.9 0.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.