NBA games

PHX @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
124–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28273732124
LAC27293715108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAC
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 37 1 4
Bradley Beal S 34 26 5 4
Kevin Durant S 37 24 9 3
Royce O'Neale S 33 15 7 5
Eric Gordon 24 11 0 0
Grayson Allen 23 6 4 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 3 19 10
Saben Lee 1 2 0 0
Thaddeus Young 13 0 2 2
Bol Bol 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bones Hyland S 43 37 4 9
Brandon Boston 40 23 7 2
Mason Plumlee S 35 12 12 4
Amir Coffey S 37 11 5 1
P.J. Tucker S 23 10 5 1
Xavier Moon 16 6 3 4
Kobe Brown 28 4 2 2
Terance Mann S 8 3 3 0
Daniel Theis 10 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
6 Norman Powell LAC
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
8 Drew Eubanks PHX
9%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 P.J. Tucker LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
18%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.6 4.1 7.0
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.2 5.7 4.4
3 Bradley Beal PHX 15.6 4.6 5.7
4 Norman Powell LAC 14.3 2.8 1.6
5 Grayson Allen PHX 13.8 4.3 2.8
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.0 10.4 1.7
7 Terance Mann LAC 10.1 3.6 1.5
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.3 9.8 4.1
9 Eric Gordon PHX 7.3 1.7 1.4
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.0 4.5 1.6
11 Amir Coffey LAC 7.0 2.7 1.5
12 Bones Hyland LAC 5.3 2.2 2.6
13 Brandon Boston LAC 5.1 2.2 0.6
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.0 4.5 0.9
15 Bol Bol PHX 4.7 2.9 0.7
16 Daniel Theis LAC 4.3 3.2 0.8
17 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.7 2.6 0.9
18 Josh Okogie PHX 3.6 2.0 1.0
19 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.5 3.1 0.6
20 Thaddeus Young PHX 3.2 3.2 0.7
21 Saben Lee PHX 2.7 1.3 1.2
22 Nassir Little PHX 2.6 1.1 0.5
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.3 0.5
24 Isaiah Thomas PHX 2.4 0.9 0.6
25 Xavier Moon LAC 2.3 1.2 0.7
26 David Roddy PHX 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.