NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
107–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28242827107
DEN26233433116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 25 2 4
Mike Conley S 30 19 4 2
Naz Reid S 30 13 6 2
Rudy Gobert S 39 13 15 3
Jaden McDaniels S 34 9 2 3
Monte Morris 15 6 1 1
Daishen Nix 3 5 1 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 5 1 2
Josh Minott 3 5 0 0
Kyle Anderson 15 4 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 41 11 7
Jamal Murray S 27 20 4 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 18 8 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 9 3 1
Reggie Jackson 20 9 2 1
Christian Braun 27 8 5 1
Aaron Gordon S 28 5 5 9
Peyton Watson 23 3 4 4
Justin Holiday 8 3 1 0
Jay Huff 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Mike Conley makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
17%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 Naz Reid MIN
7%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
10 Christian Braun DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
89%
Jumper
3%
Layup
4%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.4 13.0 9.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.8 5.7 6.2
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.4 4.7 7.1
4 Naz Reid MIN 16.9 6.8 2.3
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.5 6.8 4.3
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.3 6.7 1.8
7 Mike Conley MIN 14.7 2.6 5.9
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.3 11.8 2.1
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 12.7 2.7 4.5
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.6 3.2 2.6
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.5 4.1 1.7
12 Christian Braun DEN 9.6 4.2 2.4
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.9 2.3 1.9
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.0 3.6 4.2
15 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 6.0 1.6 2.4
16 Peyton Watson DEN 6.0 4.9 1.2
17 Monte Morris MIN 5.5 2.4 1.6
18 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.9 1.0
19 Luka Garza MIN 4.6 1.6 0.6
20 T.J. Warren MIN 3.6 2.1 0.9
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 2.5 0.6
22 Julian Strawther DEN 3.1 1.3 0.8
23 Daishen Nix MIN 2.9 1.0 0.7
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.9 1.2 0.5
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.4 1.4 0.6
26 Leonard Miller MIN 2.4 1.2 0.7
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.4 3.1 0.5
28 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.3 1.2 0.5
29 Jay Huff DEN 2.3 1.4 0.5
30 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.