NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
89–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA1124292589
OKC34343029127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Collins S 26 20 7 2
Sidy Cissoko 28 14 5 3
RaiQuan Gray 13 13 0 2
Tre Jones S 28 13 6 7
Malaki Branham S 20 7 2 1
Blake Wesley 25 7 2 1
David Duke Jr. 18 6 7 4
Julian Champagnie S 24 5 3 0
Devonte' Graham 21 2 3 1
Jamaree Bouyea 12 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 26 26 6 5
Josh Giddey S 29 20 12 7
Gordon Hayward 20 18 1 0
Jalen Williams S 24 10 7 2
Lindy Waters III 9 9 2 0
Chet Holmgren S 15 9 6 2
Isaiah Joe 12 8 3 0
Jaylin Williams 13 8 8 3
Aaron Wiggins 17 7 2 3
Bismack Biyombo 12 6 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Josh Giddey OKC
14%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA
10%
6 Tre Jones SA
10%
7 Malaki Branham SA
9%
8 Gordon Hayward OKC
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
10 Zach Collins SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
25%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 26.8 5.9 5.8
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.8 4.8 5.5
3 Josh Giddey OKC 20.4 8.2 6.9
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.8 7.4 1.7
5 Malaki Branham SA 12.5 2.6 2.0
6 Julian Champagnie SA 12.0 4.3 2.0
7 Tre Jones SA 12.0 5.2 6.1
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.3 3.4 2.0
9 Zach Collins SA 9.5 5.0 2.5
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.2 2.9 2.1
11 Cason Wallace OKC 7.2 2.7 1.7
12 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.0 3.4 1.3
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.9 5.7 1.4
14 Blake Wesley SA 6.0 2.3 3.1
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.9 3.7 3.0
16 Devonte' Graham SA 5.7 1.8 2.1
17 Gordon Hayward OKC 4.3 1.5 1.0
18 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.0 1.6 0.8
19 David Duke Jr. SA 3.4 1.4 0.9
20 Jamaree Bouyea SA 3.1 1.9 1.1
21 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.0 2.0 0.6
22 Mike Muscala OKC 2.5 1.6 0.5
23 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.5 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.