NBA games

ORL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
99–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2327272299
MIL27373221117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 33 23 4 4
Paolo Banchero S 34 20 6 6
Jalen Suggs S 27 18 3 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 23 9 3 0
Moritz Wagner 21 7 4 0
Markelle Fultz S 22 6 2 1
Anthony Black 22 5 0 1
Jett Howard 6 3 0 1
Joe Ingles 15 3 3 3
Admiral Schofield 4 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis S 30 30 9 3
Damian Lillard S 34 29 6 9
Jae Crowder 31 14 4 1
Patrick Beverley S 30 13 8 6
Brook Lopez S 31 10 4 4
Malik Beasley S 25 8 5 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 10 5 3 0
Pat Connaughton 25 5 2 3
AJ Green 16 2 0 0
Chris Livingston 3 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Markelle Fultz · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Markelle Fultz makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
23%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
18%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
13%
4 Markelle Fultz ORL
12%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
7 Patrick Beverley MIL
10%
8 Cole Anthony ORL
0%
9 Caleb Houstan ORL
0%
10 Joe Ingles ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
43%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 24.4 4.3 7.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.0 7.5 5.9
3 Bobby Portis MIL 14.2 7.6 1.9
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.6 3.0 3.7
5 Brook Lopez MIL 12.7 4.8 1.3
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.4 8.0 2.2
7 Malik Beasley MIL 9.9 2.7 1.3
8 Markelle Fultz ORL 8.8 3.2 2.3
9 Cole Anthony ORL 8.8 3.4 2.1
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.3 3.5 1.3
11 Jonathan Isaac ORL 8.1 5.0 0.9
12 Patrick Beverley MIL 7.2 3.4 2.3
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.0 2.9 3.2
14 Joe Ingles ORL 5.6 2.2 2.6
15 Jae Crowder MIL 5.5 2.2 1.3
16 AJ Green MIL 4.8 1.6 0.7
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.1 1.4 0.5
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.3 2.0 0.7
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.3 1.3 0.8
20 Jett Howard ORL 3.0 1.3 0.5
21 Anthony Black ORL 2.8 1.7 0.6
22 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 2.8 1.1 0.8
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.4 1.4 0.5
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.3 1.7 0.6
25 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.2 0.8 0.4
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.1 1.0 0.5
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.8 0.6
28 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.