NBA games

DAL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
111–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL33361923111
MIA2423271892

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIA
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 29 9 9
Kyrie Irving S 37 25 3 4
Daniel Gafford S 26 12 5 3
P.J. Washington S 35 12 6 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 26 12 2 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 18 5 2 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 2 4 0 0
Maxi Kleber 20 4 2 1
Dante Exum 19 3 3 2
Josh Green 14 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 21 7 6
Kevin Love 18 16 11 0
Caleb Martin S 38 14 4 6
Jimmy Butler III S 36 12 4 3
Bam Adebayo S 30 8 3 0
Patty Mills 11 7 0 0
Nikola Jovic S 24 6 5 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 18 6 2 1
Haywood Highsmith 24 2 10 1
Cole Swider 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
6 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
9 Caleb Martin MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
32%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.6 10.8 10.4
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.1 4.4 5.3
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.5 4.8 4.9
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.7 4.8 6.0
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.1 10.3 4.7
6 P.J. Washington DAL 13.2 6.6 2.0
7 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.4 7.2 2.2
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.4 3.9 2.1
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.9 5.3 1.7
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.9 2.7 1.8
11 Caleb Martin MIA 8.4 3.2 2.5
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.0 3.2 1.2
13 Kevin Love MIA 7.8 5.3 1.5
14 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.3 2.6 1.9
15 Dante Exum DAL 6.8 2.9 2.8
16 Thomas Bryant MIA 6.5 4.5 0.5
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.4 3.1 1.4
18 Delon Wright MIA 5.4 2.1 1.7
19 Josh Green DAL 4.7 2.3 1.0
20 Patty Mills MIA 4.3 1.1 1.4
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.1 1.7 1.0
22 Markieff Morris DAL 2.8 1.3 0.5
23 Jamal Cain MIA 2.4 0.9 0.6
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.3 1.2 0.4
25 Brandon Williams DAL 2.3 1.1 0.8
26 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.2 1.3 0.4
27 Alondes Williams MIA 1.9 0.6 0.3
28 Cole Swider MIA 1.8 0.5 0.4
29 Dwight Powell DAL 1.3 1.1 0.3
30 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.3 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.