NBA games

TOR @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
102–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27272622102
BKN27262429106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BKN
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 34 32 7 9
Gradey Dick S 34 24 4 0
Javon Freeman-Liberty 24 12 4 1
Jordan Nwora 18 11 4 2
Ochai Agbaji S 34 7 1 1
Malik Williams S 24 7 14 1
Jalen McDaniels 14 3 1 0
Mouhamadou Gueye 23 3 4 1
Garrett Temple S 36 3 6 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 37 23 4 0
Dennis Schroder S 36 21 7 9
Nic Claxton S 33 14 11 4
Cameron Johnson 27 13 3 1
Mikal Bridges S 23 11 3 2
Noah Clowney S 39 10 7 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 11 6 8 1
Trendon Watford 16 6 7 5
Jalen Wilson 20 2 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:15 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
14%
2 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
12%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
7 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
9 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR
7%
10 Jalen Wilson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
23%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 25.9 4.5 4.4
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 22.2 5.3 8.7
3 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 21.9 4.1 3.1
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.5 4.3 4.4
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 17.0 4.8 6.7
6 Gradey Dick TOR 13.9 3.3 1.6
7 Nic Claxton BKN 12.6 11.2 2.0
8 Bruce Brown TOR 11.5 3.3 3.6
9 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.5 3.6 1.8
10 Trendon Watford BKN 11.1 4.1 1.7
11 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 10.5 4.7 2.4
12 Jordan Nwora TOR 10.0 4.0 2.0
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.5 4.9 1.9
14 Chris Boucher TOR 7.0 4.2 0.9
15 Noah Clowney BKN 6.9 4.9 1.0
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.9 5.8 1.2
17 Keon Johnson BKN 5.9 1.7 1.2
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.6 2.8 1.2
19 Jacob Gilyard BKN 5.5 1.6 3.6
20 Garrett Temple TOR 5.4 2.4 1.1
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.7 2.1 1.2
22 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 4.5 2.2 0.9
23 Malik Williams TOR 3.3 4.0 0.5
24 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 2.4 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.