NBA games

CHA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
115–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30252238115
ATL35263122114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ATL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 33 27 3 2
Miles Bridges S 30 18 3 3
Tre Mann S 37 16 3 7
Grant Williams S 27 16 6 5
Aleksej Pokusevski 26 10 6 1
Nick Richards 19 7 2 1
Davis Bertans 18 6 1 0
JT Thor 18 6 4 1
Bryce McGowens 8 5 1 0
Vasilije Micic S 22 2 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 22 19 1 8
Vit Krejci S 33 19 4 2
Clint Capela S 21 15 6 0
Trae Young S 21 14 4 11
Dylan Windler 26 12 3 1
Kobe Bufkin 24 11 2 1
Garrison Mathews S 31 10 3 4
Trent Forrest 20 6 2 5
Bruno Fernando 25 5 6 0
Mouhamed Gueye 17 3 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bogdan Bogdanovic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Garrison Mathews assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
17%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
16%
3 Trae Young ATL
13%
4 Clint Capela ATL
10%
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
10%
6 Grant Williams CHA
9%
7 Vasilije Micic CHA
9%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Tre Mann CHA
8%
10 Davis Bertans CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
15%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.9 6.3 9.8
2 Trae Young ATL 23.2 3.1 11.5
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.8 6.3 4.3
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 20.3 4.6 4.7
5 Brandon Miller CHA 20.1 4.6 3.1
6 Grant Williams CHA 15.2 4.9 4.6
7 Clint Capela ATL 12.6 11.2 2.1
8 Vasilije Micic CHA 12.3 2.9 7.0
9 Tre Mann CHA 11.4 3.7 5.2
10 Bruno Fernando ATL 9.8 5.0 1.9
11 Nick Richards CHA 9.6 7.6 1.1
12 Garrison Mathews ATL 9.6 2.1 1.2
13 Davis Bertans CHA 8.8 2.3 1.1
14 Vit Krejci ATL 8.5 3.5 2.1
15 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 8.0 4.3 1.4
16 Kobe Bufkin ATL 6.3 2.5 2.4
17 Wesley Matthews ATL 5.0 2.1 1.0
18 Leaky Black CHA 4.4 2.4 1.2
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.6 1.7 0.9
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.3 1.3 0.7
21 JT Thor CHA 3.2 1.7 0.6
22 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.2 1.6 0.5
23 Trent Forrest ATL 3.0 1.4 2.9
24 Marques Bolden CHA 2.9 3.0 0.5
25 Dylan Windler ATL 2.3 0.9 0.6
26 Amari Bailey CHA 1.2 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.