NBA games

MEM @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
98–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2922163198
CLE32163032110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CLE
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jake LaRavia S 40 32 7 1
GG Jackson S 36 22 2 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 36 18 4 6
Lamar Stevens S 37 16 6 3
Zavier Simpson 24 4 8 4
Trey Jemison III S 36 4 9 3
Timmy Allen 16 2 4 1
Jack White 15 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 29 4 8
Caris LeVert 28 18 2 2
Jarrett Allen S 34 16 10 5
Darius Garland S 31 16 6 9
Evan Mobley S 31 12 12 1
Max Strus S 30 8 6 1
Isaac Okoro 27 7 4 0
Georges Niang 18 4 2 1
Emoni Bates 2 0 0 0
Damian Jones 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 18-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
8%
3 Darius Garland CLE
8%
4 Caris LeVert CLE
8%
5 GG Jackson MEM
8%
6 Trey Jemison III MEM
7%
7 Brandon Clarke MEM
7%
8 Ziaire Williams MEM
6%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
10 Donovan Mitchell CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
25%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland CLE 18.1 3.3 7.5
2 Evan Mobley CLE 17.8 6.4 4.1
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 17.7 4.3 5.3
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.5 9.5 3.3
5 GG Jackson MEM 16.4 4.8 2.9
6 Caris LeVert CLE 15.3 5.1 5.3
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.3 3.5 5.0
8 Max Strus CLE 13.6 4.1 4.9
9 Jake LaRavia MEM 13.1 4.0 2.5
10 Luke Kennard MEM 12.4 3.0 5.1
11 Brandon Clarke MEM 11.2 6.1 1.5
12 Ziaire Williams MEM 11.2 4.2 2.1
13 Santi Aldama MEM 10.9 6.1 1.8
14 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.8 5.0 1.2
15 Trey Jemison III MEM 10.6 6.6 1.6
16 Georges Niang CLE 10.0 2.7 1.5
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.7 2.7 1.6
18 Zavier Simpson MEM 7.3 2.8 3.8
19 Jack White MEM 5.2 2.6 0.7
20 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 4.8 1.9 1.2
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.6 1.5 1.5
22 Damian Jones CLE 4.0 2.4 0.5
23 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.6 1.5 0.7
24 Emoni Bates CLE 2.3 0.7 0.5
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.0 2.2 0.6
26 Pete Nance CLE 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.