NBA games

NO @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
110–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28243523110
POR27282322100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home POR
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 38 31 8 3
CJ McCollum S 34 29 5 3
Zion Williamson S 33 22 7 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 11 8 5
Herbert Jones S 38 7 4 2
Dyson Daniels 28 4 6 5
Larry Nance Jr. 20 2 4 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 2 2 0 0
Jose Alvarado 20 2 0 1
Jordan Hawkins 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 36 30 13 1
Scoot Henderson S 41 19 3 15
Kris Murray S 37 14 5 2
Dalano Banton 31 12 3 3
Duop Reath 12 12 5 1
Rayan Rupert S 33 6 4 4
Jabari Walker S 28 4 10 0
Justin Minaya 22 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scoot Henderson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Scoot Henderson makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
2 Zion Williamson NO
14%
3 CJ McCollum NO
11%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
11%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
6 Kris Murray POR
9%
7 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Jabari Walker POR
8%
10 Rayan Rupert POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
20%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 26.3 6.8 5.6
2 CJ McCollum NO 25.0 4.7 5.9
3 Deandre Ayton POR 22.7 12.2 2.3
4 Dalano Banton POR 21.8 5.5 5.6
5 Scoot Henderson POR 20.0 3.7 8.3
6 Trey Murphy III NO 15.5 6.3 2.8
7 Herbert Jones NO 12.1 3.3 3.0
8 Jabari Walker POR 11.7 8.8 1.7
9 Kris Murray POR 10.6 5.1 1.9
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.8 3.6 1.6
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 9.2 6.2 1.5
12 Dyson Daniels NO 8.9 4.0 2.7
13 Duop Reath POR 8.4 3.6 1.4
14 Rayan Rupert POR 7.9 3.6 2.6
15 Jose Alvarado NO 7.2 2.6 1.9
16 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.1 4.0 2.4
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.4 2.6 1.6
18 Jalen Crutcher NO 3.7 1.1 1.3
19 Justin Minaya POR 3.4 1.9 0.7
20 Matt Ryan NO 3.0 0.9 0.5
21 E.J. Liddell NO 3.0 1.5 0.7
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.6 0.9 0.5
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.3 1.3 0.7
24 Moses Brown POR 2.3 2.0 0.4
25 Cody Zeller NO 1.4 2.0 0.4
26 Ibou Badji POR 1.3 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.