NBA games

LAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
105–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC37291821105
PHX1023352492

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home PHX
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 39 23 7 5
Terance Mann S 38 17 10 1
Ivica Zubac S 28 17 13 2
Russell Westbrook S 40 16 15 15
Amir Coffey 34 13 4 2
Norman Powell S 33 10 5 1
Bones Hyland 17 7 9 2
Mason Plumlee 8 2 0 0
Xavier Moon 1 0 0 0
Brandon Boston 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 21 2 2
Bradley Beal S 39 19 7 3
Devin Booker S 40 12 3 5
Eric Gordon 29 11 0 0
Royce O'Neale 29 10 11 4
Grayson Allen S 31 9 6 2
Drew Eubanks S 12 6 5 1
Nassir Little 1 2 0 0
Bol Bol 7 2 2 0
Isaiah Thomas 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
20%
2 Devin Booker PHX
19%
3 Paul George LAC
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
6 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
7 Terance Mann LAC
10%
8 P.J. Tucker LAC
7%
9 Norman Powell LAC
0%
10 Mason Plumlee LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
37%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.2 4.6 7.9
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.3 6.4 4.5
3 Paul George LAC 23.2 5.0 3.5
4 Grayson Allen PHX 16.2 4.4 3.5
5 Bradley Beal PHX 14.5 4.5 6.1
6 Norman Powell LAC 14.1 2.4 1.6
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.0 9.8 1.6
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.1 3.6 4.0
9 Terance Mann LAC 10.1 2.8 1.6
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.1 3.7 1.5
11 Eric Gordon PHX 6.8 1.8 1.5
12 Amir Coffey LAC 6.5 2.4 1.5
13 Bones Hyland LAC 5.4 1.4 2.9
14 Bol Bol PHX 5.4 3.1 0.8
15 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.9 4.5 0.9
16 Brandon Boston LAC 4.7 1.9 0.6
17 Daniel Theis LAC 4.7 3.5 1.0
18 P.J. Tucker LAC 4.0 2.6 0.9
19 Josh Okogie PHX 3.4 1.8 0.9
20 Mason Plumlee LAC 3.3 3.1 0.6
21 Thaddeus Young PHX 2.7 3.3 0.8
22 Ish Wainright PHX 2.2 1.1 0.4
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.0 1.0 0.4
24 Nassir Little PHX 1.9 0.7 0.4
25 Xavier Moon LAC 1.8 0.9 0.7
26 Isaiah Thomas PHX 1.7 0.5 0.4
27 David Roddy PHX 1.7 1.0 0.4
28 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.6 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.