NBA games

GS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
134–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS38333528134
LAL29312931120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 33 27 0 3
Stephen Curry S 32 23 7 8
Andrew Wiggins S 29 17 4 0
Draymond Green S 32 15 6 10
Brandin Podziemski 20 13 3 2
Chris Paul 25 11 6 9
Gary Payton II 14 9 1 1
Jonathan Kuminga 21 8 6 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 25 7 7 0
Gui Santos 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 33 7 11
Austin Reaves S 35 22 7 6
Rui Hachimura S 31 20 11 2
D'Angelo Russell S 37 14 2 7
Spencer Dinwiddie 22 12 4 0
Jaxson Hayes S 28 11 6 1
Taurean Prince 19 2 1 0
Maxwell Lewis 2 2 0 1
Max Christie 2 2 0 0
Colin Castleton 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
12%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
6 LeBron James LAL
8%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
8 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
37%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.7 7.3 9.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.9 4.7 6.0
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.8 13.0 3.5
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.7 5.4 3.2
5 Klay Thompson GS 21.2 3.6 3.2
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.7 4.3 6.6
7 Austin Reaves LAL 17.5 5.8 6.2
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.8 6.3 1.9
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.6 6.1 1.9
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.5 8.1 1.7
11 Draymond Green GS 10.5 6.6 5.2
12 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 10.3 2.8 2.4
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.0 5.8 2.7
14 Chris Paul GS 9.8 3.5 5.6
15 Taurean Prince LAL 9.0 3.2 1.4
16 Moses Moody GS 7.9 2.7 1.4
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.0 4.3 1.0
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.9 1.3 2.0
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 2.6 1.2
20 Lester Quinones GS 4.2 1.7 0.7
21 Kevon Looney GS 4.1 3.8 0.8
22 Cam Reddish LAL 3.7 1.5 0.6
23 Max Christie LAL 3.3 1.5 0.7
24 Gui Santos GS 3.2 1.7 0.7
25 Pat Spencer GS 2.4 1.0 0.6
26 Usman Garuba GS 2.3 1.3 0.5
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.1 0.9 0.5
28 Colin Castleton LAL 2.1 1.0 0.5
29 Skylar Mays LAL 2.1 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.