NBA games

DEN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
111–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34312224111
UTAH1736271595

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home UTAH
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 27 28 2 4
Nikola Jokic S 34 28 13 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 12 5 0
Christian Braun S 28 11 2 5
Reggie Jackson 24 9 4 5
Justin Holiday 18 6 1 0
Zeke Nnaji 12 6 3 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 29 6 2 4
Peyton Watson 30 5 9 4
Julian Strawther 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Talen Horton-Tucker 32 24 3 2
Omer Yurtseven S 37 20 11 2
Luka Samanic S 35 15 10 3
Keyonte George S 30 10 3 5
Brice Sensabaugh 21 10 5 2
Darius Bazley 25 8 5 0
Johnny Juzang S 32 5 2 3
Taylor Hendricks S 22 3 5 1
Jason Preston 6 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Christian Braun · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Christian Braun makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
3 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
12%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
5 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
10%
7 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
10%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
10%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
29%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.2 13.2 9.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.4 5.1 7.9
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.0 6.9 2.2
4 Keyonte George UTAH 14.8 3.1 4.8
5 Reggie Jackson DEN 13.2 2.6 5.0
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 12.3 3.4 2.7
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.0 4.2 2.9
8 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 9.8 4.3 1.3
9 Christian Braun DEN 8.4 4.3 2.2
10 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.3 2.5 1.4
11 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 6.5 1.7 1.8
12 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 6.1 3.7 0.8
13 Peyton Watson DEN 5.6 4.3 1.1
14 Darius Bazley UTAH 5.5 3.4 1.5
15 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.8 1.2
16 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.1 2.7 0.8
17 Micah Potter UTAH 3.5 2.5 0.8
18 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 3.5 1.2 1.4
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 2.5 0.7
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.0 3.6 0.6
21 Kenneth Lofton Jr. UTAH 3.0 1.0 0.8
22 Julian Strawther DEN 2.9 1.3 0.9
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.1 0.6
24 Jason Preston UTAH 2.8 1.8 2.1
25 Jay Huff DEN 2.3 1.3 0.6
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.3 0.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.