NBA games

SAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
105–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC31332318105
OKC28173928112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home OKC
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 43 33 8 6
Keon Ellis S 36 26 6 5
Keegan Murray S 38 15 10 2
Harrison Barnes S 27 10 6 0
Davion Mitchell 22 8 1 2
Domantas Sabonis S 34 8 13 5
Trey Lyles 22 3 7 0
Colby Jones 9 2 1 1
Alex Len 10 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 40 7 4
Luguentz Dort S 30 18 2 2
Chet Holmgren S 34 15 9 2
Jalen Williams S 36 11 6 4
Isaiah Joe 20 10 4 1
Aaron Wiggins 19 7 4 1
Jaylin Williams 16 4 1 2
Josh Giddey S 21 4 4 3
Cason Wallace 18 3 2 2
Mike Muscala 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
19%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
7%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
6%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
61%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
17%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.6 5.6 5.6
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.7 5.3 5.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.9 4.3 5.0
4 Josh Giddey OKC 20.1 7.7 7.0
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.6 12.5 8.4
6 Keegan Murray SAC 17.1 4.9 2.4
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.6 7.3 1.6
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.4 3.7 1.7
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.4 3.0 2.1
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.3 3.0 1.5
11 Keon Ellis SAC 9.0 3.9 2.0
12 Davion Mitchell SAC 8.9 2.7 2.1
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.5 2.6 2.0
14 Trey Lyles SAC 8.3 3.9 1.6
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 8.0 3.6 1.4
16 Cason Wallace OKC 7.8 2.7 1.6
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.4 3.6 2.6
18 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.2 1.7 0.8
19 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.2 1.7 0.8
20 Chris Duarte SAC 4.1 1.8 0.7
21 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.8 1.4 0.7
22 Alex Len SAC 2.9 3.3 1.0
23 Colby Jones SAC 2.6 1.9 0.8
24 JaVale McGee SAC 2.3 1.7 0.6
25 Mason Jones SAC 2.0 1.0 0.9
26 Mike Muscala OKC 1.6 0.9 0.3
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.5 1.0 0.3
28 Bismack Biyombo OKC 1.5 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.