NBA games

WSH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
121–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH44262427121
MIN26343931130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIN
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert S 36 25 3 5
Jordan Poole S 33 24 3 6
Anthony Gill S 36 15 9 3
Deni Avdija S 35 15 6 5
Patrick Baldwin Jr. S 38 15 6 4
Johnny Davis 20 10 3 0
Eugene Omoruyi 12 7 2 0
Jules Bernard 8 6 3 0
Jared Butler 22 4 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 51 6 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 31 23 4 5
Rudy Gobert S 38 19 16 3
Mike Conley S 28 15 2 3
Jaden McDaniels S 28 9 5 2
Jordan McLaughlin 25 6 3 7
Naz Reid S 8 3 2 0
Monte Morris 12 3 4 0
Kyle Anderson 26 1 2 3
T.J. Warren 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Corey Kispert · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Patrick Baldwin Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
5 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
7 Naz Reid MIN
7%
8 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Tyus Jones WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.2 6.1 6.1
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.9 4.0 7.4
3 Deni Avdija WSH 21.5 9.1 4.8
4 Naz Reid MIN 18.1 7.3 2.5
5 Corey Kispert WSH 16.2 3.9 2.4
6 Mike Conley MIN 14.5 2.8 5.8
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.2 12.1 2.1
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.4 4.4 1.8
9 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.9 4.1 4.4
10 Tyus Jones WSH 9.4 2.5 8.5
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.2 2.2 1.8
12 Jared Butler WSH 8.6 2.7 3.9
13 Anthony Gill WSH 8.0 3.5 1.2
14 Richaun Holmes WSH 7.8 6.9 0.9
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.5 3.5 1.2
16 Monte Morris MIN 6.3 2.5 1.7
17 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 6.0 1.7 2.2
18 Luka Garza MIN 5.6 2.1 0.7
19 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.8 3.3 0.7
20 Johnny Davis WSH 4.3 1.9 1.0
21 Jules Bernard WSH 4.1 1.4 0.8
22 T.J. Warren MIN 4.1 2.0 0.9
23 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.6 2.3 0.7
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.9 1.5 0.7
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.7 1.4 0.7
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 1.5 0.7
27 Daishen Nix MIN 2.2 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.