NBA games

SA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
102–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA16322925102
MEM2524122687

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MEM
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 18 7 6
Julian Champagnie S 30 17 3 1
Blake Wesley 23 13 2 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 26 11 16 4
Malaki Branham S 28 10 4 2
Sidy Cissoko 21 10 3 2
Tre Jones S 32 8 7 4
Zach Collins 18 5 7 3
Jamaree Bouyea 3 4 0 0
Devonte' Graham 21 3 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Jemison III S 30 14 9 2
Brandon Clarke S 27 14 1 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 32 14 7 5
Zavier Simpson 31 12 3 5
GG Jackson S 28 11 4 2
Jordan Goodwin S 36 10 19 5
Jack White 26 6 2 0
Timmy Allen 31 6 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tre Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Tre Jones makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Trey Jemison III MEM
9%
3 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
4 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
5 GG Jackson MEM
8%
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
7 Maozinha Pereira MEM
8%
8 Tre Jones SA
8%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
55%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.4 11.4 6.8
2 GG Jackson MEM 16.5 5.4 2.7
3 Tre Jones SA 13.9 4.8 6.4
4 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.9 3.2 5.0
5 Malaki Branham SA 12.7 2.5 1.8
6 Luke Kennard MEM 12.5 3.0 5.1
7 Santi Aldama MEM 11.3 6.5 1.8
8 Ziaire Williams MEM 11.1 4.2 2.1
9 Jordan Goodwin MEM 10.9 6.5 4.9
10 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.8 5.1 1.2
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 4.2 1.9
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 10.3 6.4 1.6
13 Trey Jemison III MEM 9.7 6.1 1.4
14 Zach Collins SA 9.6 5.0 2.4
15 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.3 4.1 1.3
16 Maozinha Pereira MEM 6.2 4.9 0.7
17 Zavier Simpson MEM 6.1 2.7 3.3
18 Devonte' Graham SA 5.6 1.7 1.7
19 Blake Wesley SA 5.0 2.3 2.5
20 DeJon Jarreau MEM 4.7 3.7 2.1
21 Jack White MEM 4.5 2.8 0.6
22 David Duke Jr. SA 3.6 1.3 0.8
23 Jamaree Bouyea SA 3.2 1.8 1.3
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.8 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.