NBA games

ORL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
106–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL25263124106
HOU36273421118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home HOU
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 21 7 6
Jalen Suggs S 29 21 2 4
Markelle Fultz S 34 18 4 2
Moritz Wagner 22 12 5 1
Jonathan Isaac 22 10 8 1
Joe Ingles 18 7 3 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 21 7 6 2
Gary Harris S 31 6 5 2
Cole Anthony 12 2 0 2
Chuma Okeke 2 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 38 37 8 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 41 23 7 5
Dillon Brooks S 33 15 5 3
Jalen Green S 34 14 5 5
Amen Thompson S 38 13 8 4
Jock Landale 23 8 2 4
Jeff Green 17 6 2 2
Cam Whitmore 6 2 0 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 9 0 0 0
Nate Hinton 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
9 Gary Harris ORL
8%
10 Caleb Houstan ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
21%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 25.8 5.8 5.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.3 7.0 5.8
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.5 3.8 7.1
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.9 6.1 1.7
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.6 3.1 4.0
6 Amen Thompson HOU 13.4 8.5 3.1
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.9 3.0 1.9
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.8 4.3 1.1
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.1 8.4 2.3
10 Cole Anthony ORL 11.0 3.9 2.4
11 Jock Landale HOU 8.7 5.1 1.7
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 3.6 1.4
13 Jonathan Isaac ORL 8.0 4.5 0.8
14 Jeff Green HOU 8.0 3.0 1.1
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.8 2.4 1.4
16 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.9 3.3 2.3
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.6 1.5 1.5
18 Joe Ingles ORL 5.5 2.2 2.9
19 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.6 1.8 0.9
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.5 2.2 0.5
21 Anthony Black ORL 3.3 1.6 0.7
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.2 2.0 0.7
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.0 1.2 0.5
24 Nate Hinton HOU 2.9 1.7 0.7
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.8 0.8 0.3
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.2 1.3 0.5
27 Boban Marjanovic HOU 1.9 1.7 0.3
28 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 1.7 1.1 0.3
29 Nate Williams HOU 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.