NBA games

NY @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
128–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY36323327128
CHI27353322117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CHI
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 42 45 3 8
OG Anunoby S 35 24 3 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 38 21 4 6
Josh Hart S 46 17 13 7
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 11 4 6
Miles McBride 22 7 2 2
Bojan Bogdanovic 9 3 1 1
Mitchell Robinson 20 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 42 34 5 6
Nikola Vucevic S 39 26 5 1
Coby White S 42 24 3 6
Javonte Green S 31 9 12 0
Alex Caruso S 37 9 5 6
Dalen Terry 19 4 3 1
Andre Drummond 5 4 2 0
Torrey Craig 15 4 2 0
Jevon Carter 6 3 1 0
Adama Sanogo 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Coby White makes 14-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donte DiVincenzo NY
22%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Coby White CHI
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
6 Josh Hart NY
8%
7 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
8 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
9 OG Anunoby NY
7%
10 Javonte Green CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
66%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
20%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 31.6 3.5 9.0
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.8 4.5 6.2
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 20.0 4.2 3.1
4 Coby White CHI 16.3 3.9 4.7
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.8 9.7 3.7
6 Miles McBride NY 14.7 3.5 3.0
7 OG Anunoby NY 13.4 4.8 2.0
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 13.0 7.4 3.5
9 Alex Caruso CHI 11.9 3.8 4.7
10 Josh Hart NY 10.7 8.0 5.7
11 Javonte Green CHI 10.3 6.1 1.2
12 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 8.6 1.8 1.1
13 Andre Drummond CHI 8.6 9.0 1.0
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.9 5.8 1.1
15 Torrey Craig CHI 5.7 2.2 1.1
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.6 5.8 1.1
17 Alec Burks NY 4.1 1.6 0.6
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 2.4 1.3
19 Mamadi Diakite NY 3.9 1.8 0.4
20 Jevon Carter CHI 3.8 0.9 0.9
21 Shake Milton NY 3.2 1.9 0.7
22 Jacob Toppin NY 3.0 1.5 0.5
23 Onuralp Bitim CHI 3.0 1.4 0.7
24 Andrew Funk CHI 3.0 1.1 0.6
25 Adama Sanogo CHI 2.8 1.9 0.5
26 Henri Drell CHI 2.3 1.0 1.2
27 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 3.0 0.4
28 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.6 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.