NBA games

BOS @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
91–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2122242491
MIL37261526104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 22 5 6
Jaylen Brown S 36 14 10 3
Jrue Holiday S 32 12 7 5
Derrick White S 31 9 4 3
Sam Hauser 28 8 5 2
Luke Kornet 21 7 2 1
Payton Pritchard 24 6 2 3
Xavier Tillman S 18 6 0 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 7 5 1 1
Oshae Brissett 7 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Patrick Beverley S 26 20 10 3
Bobby Portis 22 15 10 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 29 15 8 7
Brook Lopez S 28 15 6 0
Khris Middleton S 33 12 6 9
Damian Lillard S 36 12 3 5
AJ Green 19 6 1 0
Malik Beasley 25 5 2 1
Pat Connaughton 20 4 3 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
5 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
7%
8 Al Horford BOS
7%
9 Patrick Beverley MIL
6%
10 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
2%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.8 12.2 7.3
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.2 7.2 5.0
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.4 5.5 3.7
4 Damian Lillard MIL 23.8 4.4 7.8
5 Derrick White BOS 18.3 5.4 6.4
6 Khris Middleton MIL 16.9 5.8 5.8
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.5 8.6 1.8
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.2 3.4 4.9
9 Al Horford BOS 12.5 5.4 2.3
10 Brook Lopez MIL 12.5 4.6 1.6
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.8 4.3 4.9
12 Sam Hauser BOS 11.3 4.0 1.6
13 Malik Beasley MIL 10.4 3.0 1.4
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.0 3.1 3.3
15 Jae Crowder MIL 5.9 2.4 1.4
16 Patrick Beverley MIL 5.3 2.8 1.9
17 AJ Green MIL 4.9 1.6 0.7
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.5 4.5 1.0
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.4 1.6 1.1
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.1 3.0 1.0
21 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.1 2.2 0.9
22 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.3 1.4 0.9
23 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.7 1.1 0.7
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.6 1.8 0.6
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.2 0.7
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.3 1.3 0.5
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.3 1.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.