NBA games

MIA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
117–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
MIA30292121610117
ATL2720332164111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ATL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 48 33 5 4
Jimmy Butler III S 44 25 8 9
Nikola Jovic S 40 23 8 1
Haywood Highsmith 35 13 7 2
Bam Adebayo S 48 10 7 7
Delon Wright 21 7 2 2
Kevin Love 6 3 3 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 22 3 4 1
Caleb Martin S 27 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 49 29 13 13
De'Andre Hunter S 47 23 11 3
Jalen Johnson S 24 13 8 3
Bruno Fernando 21 12 4 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 45 11 1 2
Garrison Mathews 21 11 3 0
Clint Capela S 37 6 11 2
Kobe Bufkin 11 4 4 3
Wesley Matthews 5 2 0 1
Vit Krejci 32 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 11-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL
11%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
10%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
9 Patty Mills MIA
7%
10 Tyler Herro MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
14%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.3 5.8 9.4
2 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 19.8 4.4 4.3
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.7 11.0 4.5
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.4 4.5 5.4
5 Tyler Herro MIA 19.4 4.7 5.3
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.8 8.5 5.1
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.4 4.7 2.7
8 Clint Capela ATL 12.1 10.5 2.0
9 Caleb Martin MIA 10.2 3.4 2.5
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.0 3.7 2.1
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.4 4.6 1.5
12 Garrison Mathews ATL 9.0 1.9 1.1
13 Vit Krejci ATL 8.5 3.0 2.2
14 Bruno Fernando ATL 8.4 4.5 1.7
15 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.2 3.0 2.2
16 Kevin Love MIA 7.9 5.5 1.7
17 Thomas Bryant MIA 6.7 4.8 0.5
18 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.6 2.2 1.9
19 Patty Mills MIA 4.5 1.1 1.4
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 4.2 1.8 0.6
21 Delon Wright MIA 3.8 1.6 1.4
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.7 1.7 0.8
23 Jamal Cain MIA 3.0 1.2 0.8
24 Trent Forrest ATL 2.4 1.1 2.6
25 Alondes Williams MIA 2.1 0.7 0.3
26 Cole Swider MIA 2.0 0.6 0.4
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.5 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.