NBA games

IND @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
140–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND25404134140
TOR35292732123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home TOR
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 30 5 5
Obi Toppin 22 23 6 2
T.J. McConnell 21 17 2 7
Pascal Siakam S 27 16 9 3
Myles Turner S 21 16 4 1
Ben Sheppard 27 11 2 2
Andrew Nembhard S 27 8 2 8
Aaron Nesmith S 26 8 4 2
Isaiah Jackson 18 4 7 2
Doug McDermott 10 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 33 23 4 4
Kelly Olynyk S 34 22 5 4
Javon Freeman-Liberty S 33 20 8 1
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 16 3 4
Bruce Brown 28 16 3 5
Jordan Nwora 19 11 3 2
Jalen McDaniels 16 7 2 0
Malik Williams 14 6 9 0
Ochai Agbaji S 29 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Javon Freeman-Liberty · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Javon Freeman-Liberty makes 24-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
2 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
14%
3 Kelly Olynyk TOR
13%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
5 Myles Turner IND
11%
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Gradey Dick TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
36%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 25.0 5.6 5.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.2 9.0 3.9
3 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 22.3 4.3 3.0
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.9 4.4 9.4
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR 16.0 6.6 6.0
6 T.J. McConnell IND 15.3 3.7 6.2
7 Myles Turner IND 14.9 6.2 1.7
8 Gradey Dick TOR 14.5 3.5 1.5
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.4 4.2 2.1
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.7 2.9 3.3
11 Bruce Brown TOR 11.7 3.4 3.4
12 Jordan Nwora TOR 10.4 4.4 2.0
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.5 4.9 2.0
14 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 9.3 4.3 2.3
15 Obi Toppin IND 9.2 3.9 1.4
16 Jalen Smith IND 8.1 5.8 1.1
17 Garrett Temple TOR 6.1 2.6 1.2
18 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 2.0 1.6
19 Chris Boucher TOR 5.7 3.4 0.6
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 5.0 2.3 1.2
21 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.3 4.0 0.6
22 Doug McDermott IND 3.6 1.0 0.7
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.4 1.7 0.9
24 Quenton Jackson IND 3.4 0.9 0.8
25 Malik Williams TOR 3.3 3.0 0.6
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.8 0.6 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.8 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.