NBA games

DET @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
102–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET22302624102
PHI30342630120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home PHI
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 32 25 5 4
Evan Fournier 26 21 3 0
Jalen Duren S 28 15 11 2
Malachi Flynn 21 12 0 4
Marcus Sasser S 27 10 3 5
James Wiseman 20 8 6 2
Chimezie Metu S 35 7 11 2
Jared Rhoden 15 2 1 0
Jaylen Nowell 10 2 1 1
Troy Brown Jr. S 23 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 36 37 11 8
Buddy Hield 25 18 6 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 29 17 3 0
Tobias Harris S 28 15 12 4
Paul Reed 13 8 6 0
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 21 8 0 6
Cameron Payne S 27 5 5 6
De'Anthony Melton 16 5 3 3
Ricky Council IV 10 3 1 1
Nicolas Batum S 29 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes 6-foot two point shot (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
8%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
8%
6 Jalen Duren DET
7%
7 James Wiseman DET
7%
8 Paul Reed PHI
6%
9 Marcus Sasser DET
6%
10 Chimezie Metu DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
93%
Jumper
3%
Layup
3%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.6 8.7 5.3
2 Cade Cunningham DET 24.4 5.4 7.3
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 20.2 6.3 3.6
4 Jaden Ivey DET 17.1 4.0 4.7
5 Tobias Harris PHI 16.7 7.2 2.7
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.3 10.7 1.8
7 Malachi Flynn DET 11.2 3.2 2.9
8 Chimezie Metu DET 10.5 5.4 2.1
9 Marcus Sasser DET 10.4 2.5 4.5
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.4 3.4 2.0
11 James Wiseman DET 9.8 6.9 1.2
12 Buddy Hield PHI 9.1 2.9 1.8
13 Paul Reed PHI 9.0 6.8 1.6
14 Cameron Payne PHI 8.8 2.6 2.9
15 Nicolas Batum PHI 8.4 4.2 2.0
16 Mo Bamba PHI 7.7 6.6 1.3
17 Jaylen Nowell DET 7.0 2.3 1.6
18 KJ Martin PHI 5.9 3.8 1.3
19 Troy Brown Jr. DET 5.8 3.3 1.3
20 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.4 2.1 1.9
21 Evan Fournier DET 5.0 1.7 1.6
22 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.6 1.1 1.2
23 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.6 1.3 1.0
24 Jared Rhoden DET 4.3 1.8 1.0
25 Stanley Umude DET 3.7 1.7 0.4
26 Buddy Boeheim DET 3.3 1.0 0.6
27 Taj Gibson DET 2.7 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.