NBA games

DAL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
130–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36332833130
CHA18293621104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CHA
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 35 39 12 10
Daniel Gafford S 25 26 7 1
Kyrie Irving S 37 18 8 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 15 4 1
Maxi Kleber 19 10 6 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 9 3 3
Jaden Hardy 13 3 2 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 4 3 1 0
Dante Exum 20 2 4 3
Brandon Williams 4 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 36 22 5 3
Brandon Miller S 35 21 6 4
Davis Bertans 23 13 4 0
Grant Williams S 32 12 3 4
Tre Mann S 35 11 5 6
Nick Richards 20 8 7 1
Vasilije Micic S 26 6 2 4
JT Thor 4 5 3 0
Aleksej Pokusevski 13 4 4 1
Bryce McGowens 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 30-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
5 Vasilije Micic CHA
9%
6 Grant Williams CHA
9%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
8 Tre Mann CHA
9%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
17%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.5 10.7 9.8
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.6 4.6 5.2
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.1 6.6 4.0
4 Brandon Miller CHA 20.0 4.9 2.8
5 P.J. Washington DAL 14.9 6.6 1.9
6 Grant Williams CHA 14.1 5.0 4.5
7 Vasilije Micic CHA 13.2 3.0 7.1
8 Tre Mann CHA 11.8 3.8 5.3
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.0 7.2 2.5
10 Nick Richards CHA 9.7 7.6 1.2
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 9.2 2.6 2.0
12 Dante Exum DAL 8.7 2.9 3.0
13 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 8.1 4.2 1.6
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.8 3.3 1.3
15 Davis Bertans CHA 7.5 2.1 1.2
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.4 3.0 1.7
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.4 1.7 1.0
18 Leaky Black CHA 3.7 2.3 1.0
19 Alex Fudge DAL 2.9 1.8 0.6
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 2.4 0.9 0.5
21 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.3 1.1 0.6
22 Bryce McGowens CHA 2.2 1.0 0.4
23 Brandon Williams DAL 2.1 0.8 0.8
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.1 1.5 0.7
25 JT Thor CHA 2.1 1.2 0.4
26 Marques Bolden CHA 2.1 3.0 0.3
27 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 0.8 0.4
28 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.