NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
127–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33462325127
LAL37272825117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid S 35 31 11 1
Anthony Edwards S 35 26 1 8
Rudy Gobert S 37 18 16 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 15 2 4
Jaden McDaniels S 29 11 3 2
Kyle Anderson 18 8 3 2
Mike Conley S 26 7 4 6
Jordan McLaughlin 13 6 2 2
Monte Morris 14 5 2 1
Josh Minott 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rui Hachimura S 36 30 6 1
Jaxson Hayes 33 19 10 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 36 18 5 7
D'Angelo Russell S 39 15 7 11
Austin Reaves S 35 14 3 2
Taurean Prince 25 6 3 2
Cam Reddish 14 5 2 0
Colin Castleton 2 4 0 0
Anthony Davis S 12 4 4 3
Max Christie 5 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes 2-foot layup (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
15%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
7 Naz Reid MIN
10%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
32%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.9 6.5 6.1
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.3 12.6 3.3
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.2 4.1 6.3
4 Naz Reid MIN 17.9 7.1 2.7
5 Austin Reaves LAL 17.1 6.2 5.9
6 Mike Conley MIN 15.4 2.5 5.5
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.4 6.3 1.7
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.6 4.8 1.7
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.1 11.7 2.0
10 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.6 4.1 4.9
11 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 9.4 2.7 1.9
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.5 2.4 1.8
13 Taurean Prince LAL 8.4 3.1 1.4
14 Monte Morris MIN 6.0 2.2 2.0
15 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 5.7 1.6 2.0
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.5 4.5 0.9
17 Luka Garza MIN 5.1 1.9 0.6
18 T.J. Warren MIN 4.2 2.1 0.9
19 Max Christie LAL 3.6 1.7 0.7
20 Leonard Miller MIN 2.8 1.3 0.7
21 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.3 1.3 0.6
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 1.3 0.6
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.2 1.1 0.5
24 Colin Castleton LAL 2.2 1.3 0.5
25 Daishen Nix MIN 2.0 0.6 0.5
26 Cam Reddish LAL 1.9 1.0 0.3
27 Skylar Mays LAL 0.9 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.