NBA games

SAC @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
107–77
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC29361329107
BKN1921241377

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home BKN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 34 20 5 3
Keegan Murray S 38 19 6 4
Domantas Sabonis S 35 18 20 9
Trey Lyles 29 14 10 2
Davion Mitchell 28 12 1 3
Colby Jones 23 7 4 4
Keon Ellis S 19 6 2 1
Kessler Edwards 4 6 0 1
Chris Duarte 4 3 1 1
Harrison Barnes S 11 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 36 21 4 1
Trendon Watford 33 16 7 2
Jalen Wilson S 32 11 6 3
Mikal Bridges S 24 8 5 2
Noah Clowney S 35 7 10 1
Lonnie Walker IV 25 6 3 0
Dennis Schroder S 30 4 7 6
Day'Ron Sharpe 24 4 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dennis Schroder · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:25 Q1
"Dennis Schroder makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
18%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
7%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
38%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 25.7 4.1 4.4
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.0 5.6 5.7
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 17.5 3.9 3.9
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.1 12.5 8.7
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 16.6 4.2 6.0
6 Keegan Murray SAC 16.2 4.9 2.1
7 Nic Claxton BKN 11.4 10.0 1.8
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.2 3.1 1.5
9 Cameron Johnson BKN 10.2 3.6 1.7
10 Davion Mitchell SAC 8.7 2.6 2.0
11 Keon Ellis SAC 8.6 3.8 2.1
12 Trendon Watford BKN 8.6 3.5 1.2
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.2 4.3 1.6
14 Trey Lyles SAC 7.0 3.5 1.5
15 Noah Clowney BKN 5.8 3.8 0.7
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.4 1.7 0.8
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.4 5.7 1.0
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.3 2.6 0.8
19 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 4.2 2.1 0.7
20 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 4.1 1.2 1.7
21 Chris Duarte SAC 3.7 1.6 0.7
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.4 1.3 0.7
23 Alex Len SAC 3.2 3.2 0.9
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.4 1.5 0.6
25 JaVale McGee SAC 2.3 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.